Macro: Existing Home Sales — 4% YoY median price inflation and rising for now
Existing home sales rose in November to an annual rate of 3,820,000 units from 3,790,000 in October. This is 7% lower than November 2022, but the negative growth in sales is improving. If the National [...]
Macro: Housing Starts — high construction activity continues
Housing starts jumped by 201,000 in November. While the number beat expectations in an eye popping way, I don't expect to see a meaningful upswing. Construction activity is already historically high and seems to be [...]
Macro: Industrial Production – Flat-lined
Industrial production has flat-lined over the past year. The YoY growth number is still negative but a bit better in Nov at -.4%. Dec 2022 was bad, so with a flat index for the next [...]
Macro: GDPNow — doubled
After a terrible ISM survey at the beginning of the month, GDPNow was indicating 1.2% growth. After a strong employment and retail sales report, GDPNow has more than double to 2.6%. Strong employment leading to [...]
Macro: NY FED Regional Surveys
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed declining activity in December after a positive November. It is also still showing declining future orders. Services in NY region also showing declining activity but also some optimism for [...]
Macro: Retail Sales — Nice Rebound
This was a really good number. It was partially a rebound from October. Non-store retailers were a big area of strength. I do think some holiday sales were pulled forward. Regardless, December is an easy [...]
Macro: Initial Claims — Strong employment translating to consumption
Strong employment translating to consumption continues to be the biggest positive contributor to GDP in Q4. Initial claims continue to signal all good for the economy. 202,000 was the 4th best week of the year. [...]
Stay In Touch