Macro: Consumer Sentiment
What's more pertinent? The index jumped 14% this month. The index has been in an uptrend for the last 18 months. The index is still weak relative to the last decade. Disclaimer: This information is [...]
Macro: GDP Q3 — Inflationary BOOM!
Outside of the pandemic defined as 2020 and 2021, this past quarter was the 5th best quarter for nominal GDP in the last 25 years. It was the best real growth quarter since Q2 and [...]
Macro: Philly Fed Mfg Survey — Umm
Tis was a poor number. The headline dropped from -5.9 to -10.5. The more eye popping number was the Index for New Orders which dropped from 1.3 to -25.6. I hate to say it, the [...]
Macro: Unemployment Claims — same as it ever was
Initial unemployment claims is up 2000 to 205,000. It remains at very low levels indicating continued employment strength. To put these levels in perspective, in the last cycle from 2009 to 2020 the first week [...]
Macro: Existing Home Sales — 4% YoY median price inflation and rising for now
Existing home sales rose in November to an annual rate of 3,820,000 units from 3,790,000 in October. This is 7% lower than November 2022, but the negative growth in sales is improving. If the National [...]
Macro: Housing Starts — high construction activity continues
Housing starts jumped by 201,000 in November. While the number beat expectations in an eye popping way, I don't expect to see a meaningful upswing. Construction activity is already historically high and seems to be [...]
Macro: Industrial Production – Flat-lined
Industrial production has flat-lined over the past year. The YoY growth number is still negative but a bit better in Nov at -.4%. Dec 2022 was bad, so with a flat index for the next [...]
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