100.2 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Consumer Prices

———Ep 100.2 Summary———
Consumer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They’re elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls – all TRANSITORY factors. Consumer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action.

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Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
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Emil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisL
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

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———Ep 100.2 Topics———

00:00 Show Intro: US consumer prices, are they accelerating – what got them so high anyway?
00:34 At the start of 2021 EVERYTHING was going towards INFLATION, even sovereign bonds.
02:46 Except, at the start of 2021 two markets warned that not all was well: USD and TIPS.
05:54 August CPI levels were high, but both MoM and YoY we saw deceleration.
09:29 Stimulus during recession MAY BE inflationary but the post-2008 world is in depression.
13:06 Consumer inflation expectations have risen for the next one-, three- and five-years.
16:44 Monetary/fiscal-led inflation ISN’T the same as supply/demand shocks increasing prices.
19:30 Nodes (e.g. the Fed, government) are much weaker than the complex system they inhabit.

———Ep 100.2 References———

CPI Comes ‘Home’ To The Other Side of Inverted TIPS: https://bit.ly/3tPG3j5
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

———Who———

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the complex pencil himself, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “The Kill” by Particle House feat. Le June from Epidemic Sound.