45.2 Examining the Post-Covid Economic Reflation
We look through the lenses of the dollar, Treasury yields, inflation breakevens, swap spreads to see how this Post-Covid reflation compares to the three economic recoveries of the past 13 years: Green Shoots (2009-10), Global Growth (2012-14) and Globally Synchronized Growth (2016-18).

———WHO———

Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP
Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski
Art: https://davidparkins.com/

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, getting the basics right. Artwork by David Parkins.

———WHERE———

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———WHEN———

00:05 Halfway through 2020 the world began its fourth reflation (but not recovery) in 13 years
01:30 The first reflation, “Green Shoots” (2009-10) looked like an honest-to-goodness recovery
02:16 How does one characterize the second (2012-14) and third (2016-18) reflations?
04:55 DXY – The most popular dollar futures product. Is it indicating reflation is healthy?
07:13 USD – Broad, Trade-Weighted US Dollar. Is it different from the DXY Index?
08:16 UST – United States Treasury Security nominal 10-Year yield. Rising? Yes. Fast? No.
10:29 TIPS – Treasury Inflation Protected Securities
14:40 Swaps – The fixed-for-floating interest rate spread over US Treasuries should be positive
18:11 Yield Curve – United States Treasury Security nominal yield curve.
21:08 Game Stop – What does the US stock market say about this reflation?
22:58 Monopoly stocks (FAANG) are doing well but the median publicly traded company is not

———WHAT———

Reaching Half A Year, What’s The (Complete) Reflation Situation?: https://bit.ly/2OchADQ
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7