93.3 NBER: USA Covid-Recession Over! But is it?

———Ep 93.3 Summary———
America’s Covids Recession lasted only two months, says the National Bureau of Economic Research. But what if it wasn’t a recession? What if 2007-09 wasn’t a recession either? What if 2007-21 has been a depression? The Silent Depression.

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———Ep 93.3 Topics———

00:00 Show Intro: The NBER said the Covid Recession lasted two months. But was it a recession?
00:31 Show (potential) Sponsor: The Financial Times’ John Dizard’s July 30, 2021 column.
03:28 Who is the National Bureau of Economic Research and Business Cycle Dating Committee?
05:42 The NBER BCD Committee does not tell if a recession is coming; only if it is over.
08:40 The NBER says there are two economic states: expansion or contraction.
10:26 Is it necessary for an economy to contract in order to label it a bad economy?
11:23 The NBER’s presumption of a two-state economic paradigm comes from economic ideology
13:29 Before the Great Depression the financial media had no problem using “the D-word”.
15:35 Milton Friedman’s “Plucking Model” avers that recession does not alter long-term trends.
17:31 The economy didn’t recover to potential after 2008; so economists moved the goal posts.
21:15 NBER’s depression is: “economic weakness” until the economy returns to “normal levels”.
23:45 The Silent Depression is silent because the financial media will not use “the D-word”.
25:49 In 1969 Rothbard noted depressions can be solved most easily by not mentioning them.
30:25 Show Conclusion: the hard part begins after contraction – is this recovery?

———Ep 93.3 References———

The Contraction Is Over, Which Means The Hard Part Only Begins
NBER Business Cycle FAQ: https://bit.ly/2TQqIkM
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7

———Who———

Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “MUNEY” by Beiba from Epidemic Sound.