Here are some of the headline sentiments I am seeing:

  • consumer confidence rises
  • consumer confidence rebounds
  • consumer confidence rises for the first time in 4 months
  • consumer is optimistic

Let’s take this with a grain of salt. Last months initial number was 102.6. This month’s number is 102.0.

Last months print of 102.6 was revised down to 99.1. Therefore we can now claim confidence rebounds? I think the jury is still out.

The broader picture is that gloomy expectations that developed from 2021 to the middle of 2022 have not come to fruition. The consumer’s present situation has weakened only slightly over the last 2+ years and not been nearly as bad as he/she expected given the weak “Expectations Index.” Thus the Future Expectations Index continues to improve. The Present Situation Index, though, has dropped recently within the band drawn. Is the recent short term drop a bad sign or will it stay within the range of today’s skittish consumers’ sentiment? Stay tuned.

 

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