Manufacturing regionally, nationally and globally continues to be in contraction. In line with that theme, ISM reported 47.4% this morning, the 14th straight month of contraction. Manufacturing is contracting at slower rates and export orders continue to show improvement. To date this has played out more like a slowly recovering covid hangover. The fear is weak demand signaling recession, but that hasn’t been the case to date as seen by the green trend line I drew into the graphic.

ISM MFG PMI 47.4

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