Tis was a poor number. The headline dropped from -5.9 to -10.5. The more eye popping number was the Index for New Orders which dropped from 1.3 to -25.6. I hate to say it, the diffusion index for new orders has never gone below 21 without an accompanying recession; that is until 2023. This is the 4th reading in the last 13 months below 21.

These regional manufacturing surveys have been relatively poor since the middle of 2022. To date, it hasn’t mattered.

Its as if growth in goods consumption was so great from Q2 2020 to Q2 2022 that the current level of 3% growth in goods consumption is somehow bad? We’ll have to see how this plays out.

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