Inevitable adjective incapable of being avoided or evaded I heard that word a lot last week. There is now a fully formed consensus that the US, and indeed the world, now faces an inevitable recession. It can't be avoided. Central banks will have to keep hiking rates because that's the only way to kill inflation. Yes, the inflation is due [...]
I don't know the answer to the question posed in the title. No one does because the future is not predictable. I don't know what will happen in Ukraine. I don't know how much what has already happened there - and what might - matters to the US and global economy. I don't know if the Fed is making a [...]
I'll just get this out of the way right at the beginning. The question in the title of this post refers to the end of the ongoing stock market correction and the answer is likely no. There are no sure things in this business so it isn't an unequivocal no, but based on history, the odds favor more weakness. I [...]
Here we go again. Or maybe, more accurately, here we go still. COVID has reared its ugly head again, this time in the form of a new variant called Omicron. The name surprised some folks because the next letter in the Greek alphabet was Nu, but the WHO thought that sounded too much like "new" so they skipped that one, [...]
It was hard not to hear about cryptocurrencies last week what with the bear market and all. Actually, you can make the case that bitcoin has had two bear markets since mid-April. There was a 27% decline followed by a 27% rally, followed by last week's rout. From its intraday peak in April to its intraday low last week, bitcoin [...]
Global stock markets, especially in the US, have made a furious comeback from the lousy start of the year. At its worst level the S&P 500 was down 11% year to date and 15% from its peak late last spring. At that nadir the market was trading at roughly the same level as November of 2013, over two years of [...]
Why was the stock market down almost 6% last week? I know what you're thinking - has this guy been under a rock somewhere? But I'm serious. I know what all the pundits, commentators and talking heads are saying about the immediate cause. It's about the China devaluation and the knock on effect in other emerging markets. It's about global [...]
US stocks declined for the seventh straight day on Friday, a dismal streak not seen for almost four years. The S&P 500 is now down 5 of the last 7 weeks although in total it is just 2.5% below the all time high. If you just own the index I suppose that is not much to be concerned about but [...]
The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated. Mark Twain Over the last few years I've read a plethora of articles about this supposedly hated bull market in stocks. It is said that this is the most hated bull market in history and while I'd argue with that a bit, it isn't far off the mark. The desire to be [...]
Stocks rebounded in spectacular fashion last week, the angst of the last few weeks apparently forgotten as quickly as a central banker can float a trial balloon. First there was the Bullard bounce that moved us off the lows when things were looking their grimmest and then last week we got a rumor about the ECB potentially buying corporate bonds [...]
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