President Trump's first week on the job was a good one for markets. The S&P 500 was up 1.75%, with tech stocks taking the lead as the President welcomed a group of leading technology CEOs to D.C. to announce big investments in AI. Well, not so much to announce as to re-announce, since finding something new in the press release [...]
For every complex problem there is an answer that is clear, simple, and wrong. H.L. Mencken By the time you read this we'll have a new President. Well, actually, he's an old President, but whatever we think we know about him from his first term may not be much help in the second. The group of people about to take [...]
As is my usual practice, this will be my last commentary for the year barring big news (and most "news" isn't, especially that of the market variety). While I won't be writing for the next month, that doesn't mean I won't be working. I use the month of December to catch up on my research reading (books and academic papers) [...]
Here's a summary of last week's global geopolitical events that inform us on regional happenings that are pertinent for investing. We read a lot, but must thank our strategic partners who curate so much information and provide a deeper context. We're always watching. Our partners have been vetted for expertise and independence. Links to their sites are at the end [...]
Here's a summary of last week's global geopolitical events that inform us on regional happenings and/or are pertinent for investing. We read a lot, but must thank our strategic partners who curate so much information and provide a deeper context. We're always watching. Our partners have been vetted for expertise and independence. Links to their sites are at the end [...]
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today's environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to [...]
Here is a brief summary of what is of concern to domestic and international policymakers, academics, community groups, and others. We might call these "known risks." Persistent inflation and monetary tightening Persistent or reaccelerating inflationary pressures Resilient economic outlook leading to further monetary policy tightening Volatile market conditions Entrenched expectations of higher inflation leading to higher realized inflation leading to [...]
Everybody loves dividend stocks. Some prefer stocks with high dividend yields and some prefer stocks of companies that have grown their dividends consistently, but dividends are an essential component of many (we think it should be all) investors' portfolios. The two methodologies produce quite different portfolios but over the long run, they both perform very well on a total return [...]
Every weekend I sit down at my desk and write the title of this post at the top of a legal pad. I make a list of everything I can identify as trading at an extreme in markets. If an investor is to make tactical changes to their portfolio, it is in the extremes where they will find their greatest [...]
When we think about the challenges facing an investor today, the big problems, the things we worry about that could cause a lot more harm than some interest rate hikes, are mostly outside the United States. China is prominent this weekend because of demonstrations against their zero-COVID policies. The Chinese people appear to be pretty well fed up with the [...]
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