china

Inflationary Overheating, Tapering and Terminating QE, We’ve Seen These Before And It Didn’t End The Way It Was Supposed To

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-30T12:23:09-05:00December 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The economy was in danger of running hot, too hot they all said. In order to stay ahead of such inflation potential, as central bankers saw it, first it would be necessary to wind down quantitative easing. Taper then terminate. After that, rate hikes.Hawks buzzing around everywhere.But Mario Draghi’s ECB had a problem. The inflationary pressures were there, he reasoned, [...]

Taper Rejection: Mao Back On China’s Front Page

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-28T19:59:21-05:00December 28th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese run media, the Global Times, blatantly tweeted an homage to China's late leader Mao Zedong commemorating his 128th birthday. Fully understanding the storm of controversy this would create, with the Communist government’s full approval, such a provocation has been taken in the West as if just one more chess piece played in its geopolitical game against the United States [...]

The Historical Monetary Chinese Checklist You Didn’t Know You Needed For Christmas (or the Chinese New Year)

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-22T18:37:20-05:00December 22nd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If there is a better, more fitting way to head into the Christmas holiday in the United States than by digging into the finances and monetary flows of the People’s Bank of China, then I just don’t want to know what it is. Contrary to maybe anyone's rational first impression that this is somehow insane, there’s much we can tell [...]

Global Trade Case(s) Behind Global ‘Growth Scare’

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-07T18:41:14-05:00December 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The US Census Bureau today reported that US imports of goods and services reached a record monthly high of $290.7 billion in October 2021. Just goods alone, the figure was $241.1 billion, which was 11% greater than the previous peak set way back in October 2018. With (questionable) media accounts continuing to highlight West Coast port traffic, there may not [...]

Last Week Euro$, This Week Starts w/RRR; Or, The Twelve Days of Deflation
Last Week Euro$, This Week Starts w/RRR; Or, The Twelve Days of Deflation

Last Week Euro$, This Week Starts w/RRR; Or, The Twelve Days of Deflation

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-12-06T17:41:04-05:00December 6th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Euro$ curve inversion of 2018 wasn’t an isolated case by any means. Along with all the other “bond market” stuff, these together had been a useful warning three years ago for reality as it unfolded the opposite way from the narrative about accelerating growth and inflation. Not just the one curve kinked, an escalating stream of alarms. There was [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future
Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future

Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future

By Joseph Y. Calhoun III|2021-12-06T07:43:14-05:00December 5th, 2021|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn't true on a global basis, as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs. But here in the [...]

Questioning The Already Questionable State of Global Demand

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-30T19:39:11-05:00November 30th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

If markets seem a bit on edge, I guess omicron seems a good reason if for no other reason than we don’t know much about it. But even that reaction points toward something else. A truly robust economy has little to fear from such unknowns, even from what might be predictable overreaction across the entire public sphere.The knee-jerk negative sentiment [...]

The ‘Growth Scare’ Keeps Growing Out Of The Macro (Money) Illusion

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-23T19:31:28-05:00November 23rd, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When Japan’s Ministry of Trade, Economy, and Industry (METI) reported earlier in November that Japanese Industrial Production (IP) had plunged again during the month of September 2021, it was so easy to just dismiss the decline as a product of delta COVID. According to these figures, industrial output fell an unsightly 5.4%...from August 2021, meaning month-over-month not year-over-year. Altogether, IP [...]

TIC: Consistent, Coherent, Corroborated, Inflation Never Had A Chance

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-18T09:45:43-05:00November 17th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The TIC data is great, it’s fantastic and wonderful if by comparison to the utterly slim pickings available elsewhere – which is practically nil. Compared to what I’d really like to know, the series leaves a ton out there. This is understandable if still unforgivable; on the one hand, the Treasury International Capital report itself predates the eurodollar system by [...]

Chinese Ice Cream

By Jeffrey P. Snider|2021-11-15T20:14:04-05:00November 15th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How much Mao is too much? If you’re like me, the answer is anything above zero. Introducing Maoism is quite like the adage of ice cream mixing dog poo; the former cannot improve the latter even a tiny drop. On the contrary, the smallest helping of feces leaves the whole thing smelling like it, rendered completely inedible no matter how [...]

Last Week Euro$, This Week Starts w/RRR; Or, The Twelve Days of Deflation

Weekly Market Pulse: Discounting The Future

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