copper

Was Last Month’s Fedwire A Coincidence?

By |2021-03-25T20:07:42-04:00March 25th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell rarely gives media interviews. Most of his interaction with journalists takes place in the carefully controlled – and credentialed – environment of post-meeting press conferences. One notable exception was last May when the Fed’s head guy visiting with 60 Minutes so that he could, pardon the expression, lie his ass off. Today, March 25, 2021, [...]

Weekly Market Pulse – Real Rates Finally Make A Move

By |2021-02-22T09:02:19-05:00February 21st, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Stocks|

Last week was only four days due to the President's day holiday but it was eventful. The big news of the week was the spike in interest rates, which according to the press reports I read, "came out of nowhere". In other words, the writers couldn't find an obvious cause for a 14-basis point rise in the 10-year Treasury note [...]

Conventional Wisdom Is Nothing of The Sort

By |2021-01-19T11:31:10-05:00January 18th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

If you had known in October all that would transpire over the next 2 ½ months, how would you have positioned your portfolio? The conventional wisdom before the election was that a Biden win would be negative for stocks because he has promised to raise taxes and specifically corporate taxes. In 2016, conventional wisdom was that a Trump victory would [...]

If the Fed’s Not In Consumer Prices, Then How About Producer Prices?

By |2021-01-15T19:38:00-05:00January 15th, 2021|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It’s not just that there isn’t much inflation evident in consumer prices. Rather, it’s a pretty big deal given the deluge of so much “money printing” this year, begun three-quarters of a year before, that consumer prices are increasing at some of the slowest rates in the data. Trillions in bank reserves, sure, but actual money can only be missing. [...]

The Doctor Is In?

By |2020-12-30T18:00:21-05:00December 30th, 2020|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Gold’s not buying. Neither is the bond market. Inflation Hysteria #2 has so much less to it than #1 in 2017-18 ever did. But this one isn’t completely empty. There are some asset classes which have been absolutely on fire thus seemingly consistent with the “money printing” excesses of Fed and feds. Investors fearing for currency “debasement” and fiscal breakdown [...]

Tactical Update: Long-Term Trends

By |2020-12-24T07:52:40-05:00December 24th, 2020|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Note: There are a lot of charts in this post. That doesn't mean that we are technicians. We use charts because we are primarily interested in trends, especially long-term, big-picture trends. And charts are the easiest way to present that information. In general, you will want your tactical adjustments to respect the long-term trend. There are times when it makes [...]

Vaccine-phoria

By |2020-11-10T19:51:04-05:00November 10th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What’s interesting about vaccine-phoria is that it’s largely been contained to just the one part of the bond market. Nominal Treasury yields at the long end have surged, while those at the shorter end have moved up a bit, too. Predictably, the calls for the BOND ROUT!!!! have grown, typically referencing the guaranteed end of the so-called 40-year bond “bull.” [...]

What’s Zambia Got To Do With It (everything)

By |2020-10-01T19:35:12-04:00September 30th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

As one of Africa’s largest copper producers, it seemed like a no-brainer. Financial firms across the Western world, pension funds from the US or banks in Europe, they lined up for a bit of additional yield. This was 2012, still global recovery on the horizon – at least that’s what “they” all kept saying. Zambia did what everyone does, the [...]

Copper Confirmed

By |2019-09-03T19:33:19-04:00September 3rd, 2019|Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Copper prices behave more deliberately than perhaps prices in other commodity markets. Like gold, it is still set by a mix of economic (meaning physical) and financial (meaning collateral and financing). Unlike gold, there doesn’t seem to be any rush to get to wherever the commodity market is going. Over the last several years, it has been more long periods [...]

Monthly Macro Monitor: Market Indicators Review

By |2019-10-23T15:08:22-04:00August 29th, 2019|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets|

This is a companion piece to last week's Monthly Macro report found here. The Treasury market continues to price in lower nominal and real growth. The stress, the urgency, I see in some of these markets is certainly concerning and consistent with what we have seen in the past at the onset of recession. The move in Treasuries is by [...]

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