Questions, questions, questions. Investors always have lots of questions, most of them about the future, which makes them very hard impossible to answer. That doesn't mean the questions aren't worth asking though, which is why I do this every few months. Thinking about what we don't know can prepare us for the future no matter how it turns out. And [...]
I write an overview of the economy about once a month and for the longest time the entire thing could have been summed up in a single sentence: nothing has changed since the last time I wrote about the economy. Of course, over a month we shouldn't expect much change but even over longer periods, the economy is remarkably consistent. [...]
Sentiment about the economy is negative right now, but that isn't a new development. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is near its all-time worst reading, which was set just a few years ago in 2022. The expectations portion of that survey is currently at levels only seen in the mid-70s, near the bottom of the '73/74 bear market, [...]
How can the US re-open the Strait of Hormuz? That is the $64,000 question for investors today and the Trump administration so far doesn't have an answer beyond asking other countries for help (which they probably should have done before they started this). While Asian and European countries certainly have an incentive to get the strait open and oil flowing [...]
As we near the end of the first year of President Trump's second presidential term, the debate about his economic policies hasn't changed much. That's because it isn't an economic debate mostly, but a political one and that applies to the public as well as economists (yes, they are as vulnerable to political bias as anyone else). Democrats hate Trump's [...]
Our view of the economy is somewhat obscured by the lack of official data but what information we do have from the last month points to an economy that continues to weaken - continuing a trend that has prevailed all year. The most obvious negative pronouncement about the economy came from voters last week, who produced some big surprises in [...]
The tariff rollercoaster continues. This week most of President Trump's tariffs were ruled to be outside the scope of the law he used to impose them. I was not surprised in the least because, as I wrote a few weeks ago, I actually took the time to read the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the word tariff doesn't even [...]
“Our freedom of choice in a competitive society rests on the fact that, if one person refuses to satisfy our wishes, we can turn to another. But if we face a monopolist we are at his absolute mercy. And an authority directing the whole economic system of the country would be the most powerful monopolist conceivable…it would have complete power [...]
Okay, I confess. It was my fault. I decided to take a couple of days off. I took my eye off the ball and the stock market fell a quick 2% while I was relaxing, eating too much, and seeing some great art in the Holy City, Charleston, SC. I promise it won't happen again, at least until my wife [...]
Bonds and stocks rallied last week on the back of two pretty good inflation reports, right? I suppose but there were other things going on too so let's take a look at how inflation expectations changed last week and see if that's what drove markets. The 5 year inflation breakeven fell by 2 basis points. Yes, 2. 10 year inflation [...]
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