Of the economic releases of the past two weeks the one that got the most attention was the employment report. That report is seen by many market analysts as one of the most important and of course the Fed puts a lot of emphasis on it so the press spends an inordinate amount of time dissecting it. I don't waste [...]
It wasn't a very good two weeks for economic data with the majority of reports disappointing. Most notable I think is that the so called "soft data" is starting to reflect reality rather than some fantasy land where President Trump enacts his entire agenda in the first 100 days of being in office. Politics is about the art of the [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard The economic data released since my last update has been fairly positive but future growth and inflation expectations, as measured by our market indicators, have waned considerably. There is now a distinct divergence between the current data, stocks and bonds. Bond yields, both real and nominal, have fallen recently even as stocks continue their relentless march higher. The [...]
Economic Reports Scorecard There was little improvement in the economic data the last couple of weeks, the Citigroup Economic Surprise index still well below zero (-8.1). And frankly, where there was improvement such as the GDP report, it doesn't look sustainable...unless the US is about to become a soybean exporting powerhouse. Anything is possible I suppose but counting on Brazil [...]
The news Friday that 2nd quarter GDP expanded by a tepid 1.2% from the previous quarter (annualized) marks a change that needs to acknowledged. The last two years we have seen a pattern of a weak first quarter - for which economists have been searching frantically for an explanation - followed by a second and third quarter rebound. Fourth quarters [...]
The risk budgets this month are again unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. The changes in our indicators since last month's update have not been sufficient to warrant a change. Credit spreads did narrow significantly over the last month but the widening trend is still [...]
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