retail sales

China Posts *Some* Kind of Upside

By |2022-03-15T17:54:57-04:00March 15th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

They zig when they were supposed to zag. China’s PBOC was widely expected to drop its MLF rate, triggering the same for bank LPR (loan prime rate) which will be published this upcoming Monday morning (Beijing time). It would have been the third rate cut since December, though it should be noted Chinese authorities had already refrained from action in [...]

Briefing Even More Inventory

By |2022-02-28T20:03:49-05:00February 28th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Retail sales stumbled in December, contributing some to the explosion in inventory across the US supply chain – but not all. Inventories were going to spike even if sales had been better. In fact, retail inventories rose at such a record pace beyond anything seen before, had sales been far improved the monthly increase in inventories still would’ve unlike anything [...]

Americans Love Spending Online In Certain Januaries

By |2022-02-16T17:49:50-05:00February 16th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

When it gets cold outside and the pandemic throws another variant spread into the mix, Americans have proved they will come together…in virtual fashion to go shopping for fashions and more on Amazon. For the second straight post-Christmas winter, retail sales recorded by nonstore retailers ended up being far, far better than expected. According to the Census Bureau’s latest report [...]

FOMC Goes With Unemployment Rate While This Huge Number Happens To Far More Relevant Economic Data

By |2022-01-26T17:58:07-05:00January 26th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The first time I can consciously remember using the term landmine was probably here in February 2019. I had described the same process play out several times before, I had just never applied that term. There was all sorts of market chaos in the final two months of 2018, including a full-on stock market correction, believe it or not, leaving [...]

What Kind of Tiger ‘Needs’ Wings?

By |2022-01-18T18:34:43-05:00January 18th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Chinese Communists, like their counterparts everywhere around the world, they do love their metaphors. Speaking virtually at Davos again in 2022 like he had in 2021, the theme was largely the same. A year ago, China's dictator had warned about the uncertainty of the global recovery, a celebratory party only then getting going around those parts; he got that one [...]

The Historic Christmas Binge

By |2022-01-14T17:00:05-05:00January 14th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The reason that store shelves are occasionally empty, as any social media hashtag trend will tell you, is that Americans are still buying an amazing amount of goods. For December 2021, Christmas was hardly canceled. The Census Bureau today reported that retailers during the biggest month of last year, of every year, grabbed an astoundingly huge $714 billion in overall [...]

Trying To Project The Goods Trade Cycle

By |2021-12-16T19:16:24-05:00December 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

One quick note on yesterday’s retail sales estimates in the US for the month of November 2021. The increase for them was less than had been expected, but these were hardly awful by any rational measure. Instead, they seemed to further indicate only what we had proposed upon release of the October estimates: Christmas shopping came a bit early for [...]

Christmas Comes (too?) Early

By |2021-11-16T19:01:03-05:00November 16th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

It began all the way back during the summer. Vice President Kamala Harris was in Singapore in August hosting a gathering of business leaders. Supply issues naturally came up, and the VP warned: The stories that we are now hearing about the caution that if you want to have Christmas toys for your children it might be the time to [...]

Chinese Ice Cream

By |2021-11-15T20:14:04-05:00November 15th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

How much Mao is too much? If you’re like me, the answer is anything above zero. Introducing Maoism is quite like the adage of ice cream mixing dog poo; the former cannot improve the latter even a tiny drop. On the contrary, the smallest helping of feces leaves the whole thing smelling like it, rendered completely inedible no matter how [...]

Trying To Invest Prosperously In These Times Of China’s Common Prosperity

By |2021-10-18T18:04:20-04:00October 18th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Maybe the problem is the slogans, though I seriously doubt it. There are, admittedly, way too many and perhaps there is something lost in the translation. Going from Chinese to English can be notoriously tricky, and by sheer number of official catchphrases odds are a few are going to be miscast at the very least. Rebalancing. Rejuvenation. Dual Circulation. No [...]

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