In its December 2015 policy statement, the one that raised the federal funds target corridor, the FOMC changed the language surrounding its inflation stance. They still projected the 2%, of course, but were now indicating that they were more certain than ever about it. In many ways they had to shift the wording because of the actions; the prior passage [...]
There does seem to be internal financing adjustments going on inside the arcane and cumbersome framework of CNY to US$. Whether or not that is desirable remains to be seen, but the case of the past few weeks suggests, and somewhat strongly, that the PBOC is again losing control. What it is almost certainly like trying to squeeze a balloon, [...]
While we await a flood of data for December spending and retail activity to confirm what we already suspect by proxy, the updated figures for November going backwards in the production process stand as yet another warning. Retail sales figures were typically abysmal, as were private indications of spending. The Thompson Reuters Same Store Sales Index, a measure of actual [...]
Immediately after the Fed hiked interest rates last Wednesday – after sitting at 0% for 7 years – markets acted pretty much as one might expect. The Fed tightens monetary policy when the economy is strong so rising stock prices, rising interest rates and a strong dollar are all things that make sense in that context. I am sure there [...]
Top News Headline Stocks end down after wild 700 point range trading. US ends oil export ban. Crickets chirp. Republicans debate, Democrats debate, the nation shudders. Star Wars: The Force Awakens shatters box office records. I visit the mall to Christmas shop, discover the obesity epidemic is not solved, mirrors in short supply. Economic News Fed hikes rates by 25 [...]
Oil prices plunged, junk bonds hit a 2 ½ year low, stocks took a nearly 4% hit, a junk bond fund halted withdrawals, the country’s biggest pipeline operator cut its dividend by 75% and two of the biggest mining companies in the world suspended theirs completely. It was not a good week for financial markets. And the Fed meets to hike [...]
Top News Headlines Kinder Morgan, Freeport McMoran, Anglo-American cut dividends Climate deal reached in Paris. Not legally enforceable, all voluntary, no one cares. Dow, Dupont agree to merge, divest and keep Wall Street employed. Junk bond fund halts redemptions. Economic News China loosens Yuan peg to the dollar. Oil hits new lows. Jobless claims hit 5 month high. Retail sales [...]
Top News Headlines 1. Terrorist attack in San Bernardino; 14 dead, 21 wounded. Husband and wife terrorist team killed in shootout. President Obama to address nation. 2. ISIS claims terrorists were supporters. 3. OPEC meets, no agreement on output. 4. Wild ride as US data and ECB roil markets. Economic News 1. ECB cuts rates, extends QE, markets demand more. [...]
Chinese stocks “unexpectedly” plunged last week in a fit of stormed selling that reminded of August rather than the placidity that has been claimed of China since. By mainstream account, China has fixed its bout of “selling UST” and “outflows” while also providing two double doses of “stimulus.” The PBOC had even taken to a higher fix in the middle [...]
Top News Headlines Turkey and Russia spar over airspace. Russian promises retaliation for fighter shoot down. Brussels shuts down for days in terrorist hunt. Chicago policeman charged with murder. Stocks little changed on the week, no follow through from last week's rally. Pfizer, Allergan agree to merge for tax benefits, politicians posture, threaten. Economic News Japan unveils new stimulus measures. [...]
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