Note: I wrote most of this commentary prior to the US strike on Iran and I decided to go ahead with it anyway. I don't know any more than you do about what is going on in the Middle East and trying to predict what will happen in the coming days and weeks is a fool's errand. We have a [...]
The tariff rollercoaster continues. This week most of President Trump's tariffs were ruled to be outside the scope of the law he used to impose them. I was not surprised in the least because, as I wrote a few weeks ago, I actually took the time to read the International Emergency Economic Powers Act and the word tariff doesn't even [...]
Moody's Ratings downgrades United States ratings to Aa1 from Aaa; changes outlook to stable New York, May 16, 2025 -- Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has downgraded the Government of United States of America's (US) long-term issuer and senior unsecured ratings to Aa1 from Aaa and changed the outlook to stable from negative. This one-notch downgrade on our 21-notch rating scale reflects [...]
You can't be serious! You cannot be serious! - John McEnroe, challenging a fault call at Wimbledon, 1981 That's what went through my head when President Trump unveiled his "reciprocal" tariffs on Wednesday last week. The tariffs unveiled on Trump's "Liberation Day": are the largest tax increase since at least 1968 and maybe in our entire history. impose an average [...]
It's the residual of all the stuff we can't explain. It's not that our models are wrong, it's the dark matter that's out there. - Fed Governor Neel Kashkari, referring to the "term premium" in long term Treasury yields The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can [...]
The employment report on Friday seemed like a good one. The unemployment rate was unchanged as the economy added 336,000 jobs in September. The gains were widespread with additions in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation, warehousing, leisure and hospitality, healthcare and education, and government. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% for the month and 4.2% year-over-year. It was [...]
Stocks are now down from their late July peak by about 5%. It has been a very orderly pullback with most of the major averages shaving off about the same amount. The exceptions are the NASDAQ, which peaked a little earlier than the S&P, and REITs, both down about 7.5%. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P so it [...]
I spend a lot of time asking questions. I don't always have answers to these questions but I think it is critical to ask them. Think about how the consensus might be wrong or, more importantly, how you might be. Question the narrative and try to determine what's important and what's not, who you can ignore, and who merits your [...]
Last week started with investors focused on Jerome Powell's testimony before Congress and any hints about future monetary policy. During the course of two days of testimony, which was deemed more hawkish than expected, the market priced in another rate hike and pushed out the possibility of a rate cut all the way to January 2024. The week ended with [...]
Note: This will be my last full commentary for 2022. I will spend the month of December on research for next year, visiting with family, and taking some much-needed time off. I will still be watching markets, as will all the other members of the Alhambra team and if something happens which requires me to communicate, I'll certainly do that. [...]
Stay In Touch