Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments with Emil Kalinowski, slowing it way down à la Major Marquis Warren. Artwork by David Parkins, descendant of Arthur Eld ancient King of All-World. Podcast intro and outro is “Aoraki” by Ooyy, at Epidemic Sound.
[Emil’s Summary] Hark! Inflation’s war cry… At least that is what you’ll read in the pages of the financial media. And that is EXACTLY what your central bankers need you to believe. Now, admittedly SOME commodity prices have gone up. Half of the agricultural and livestock prices are up year-to-date. Copper is up! But these are the results of supply line disruptions and demand surges. The temporary, transitory reactions to the CoVo. NOT the persistent, broad-based multi-year inflation carried in by a monetary surge that central bankers suggest. Almost every energy-based commodity is DOWN. Most all industrial metals are DOWN.
We address the issue in three segments, in this, the 19th episode of Making Sense. First, gold’s sauntering to $2,000. Silver is looking lustily at $30. Inflation, right? Central bank printing, true? Politicians handing out stipends and stimulus, yes? NO! Gold has been rising regularly – in concert with sovereign bonds – since October 2018 signaling deflation, disorder… and danger.
Then in part two, America’s dollar is said to be the global reserve currency. But might there be hostile nations scheming furiously to undermine the US dollar? They are, afterall, selling US Treasuries on net, since 2014. Is there a dollar Pearl Harbor ahead? No. Precisely the opposite. It’s the real reserve currency – the EURODOLLAR – that holds nations hostage, including the USA!
And finally, Federal Reserve officials are promoting the notion the central bank will allow inflation to run. Run pure. And hot! A Bloomberg opinion column called it “a whole new ballgame [baby!]” (I added the “baby!” part). We’ve heard this story before. Not only from the Fed but as children. From Aesop. We knew it then as, “The Boy Who Cried Wolf”.
That’s not Inflation’s war cry. Not in this monetary disorder and economic depression. It’s a publicity campaign. A caterwauling.
00:05 | Two key Federal Reserve officials let it be known they were going to let inflation run hot. Why not the first 13 years?
02:00 | Bloomberg opinion writer Tim Duy explains the Federal Reserve means it. This time. For reals. Game time. Checkmate!
06:34 | “Symmetry” The Federal Reserve believed that by adding that ONE WORD to their statement they could change markets. NUTS!
10:23 | What are US Treasury bond markets telling us about our present and future monetary and economic circumstances?
Not This Again: https://bit.ly/2BrIBwU
The Fed Is Setting the Stage for a Major Policy Change: https://bloom.bg/2ZXq98Q
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7