100.2 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Consumer Prices
———Ep 100.2 Summary———
Consumer prices in the US are elevated, but decelerating. They’re elevated because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls – all TRANSITORY factors. Consumer prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action.
———Ep 100.2 Topics———
00:00 Show Intro: US consumer prices, are they accelerating – what got them so high anyway?
00:34 At the start of 2021 EVERYTHING was going towards INFLATION, even sovereign bonds.
02:46 Except, at the start of 2021 two markets warned that not all was well: USD and TIPS.
05:54 August CPI levels were high, but both MoM and YoY we saw deceleration.
09:29 Stimulus during recession MAY BE inflationary but the post-2008 world is in depression.
13:06 Consumer inflation expectations have risen for the next one-, three- and five-years.
16:44 Monetary/fiscal-led inflation ISN’T the same as supply/demand shocks increasing prices.
19:30 Nodes (e.g. the Fed, government) are much weaker than the complex system they inhabit.
———Ep 100.2 References———
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the complex pencil himself, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “The Kill” by Particle House feat. Le June from Epidemic Sound.