100.3 Why Inflation is OVERHYPED: US Import Prices
———Ep 100.3 Summary———
Import and export prices are elevated in the US, but decelerating. They’re high because of demand surges, supply shocks and logistics snarls – all TRANSITORY factors. Import/export prices ARE NOT elevated because of permanent, pervasive central bank or government inflationary action.
———Ep 100.3 Topics———
00:00 INTRO: US inflation, as captured by import and export prices.
00:32 Helicopter money, courtesy of fiscal stimmy checks, didn’t work in 2008 (so, 2020-21?).
04:09 Neither Republican Bush nor Democrat Obama policies prevented the Silent Depression.
05:19 Import prices should surge if the dollar is devalued and/or inflation is a raging.
08:21 Import prices were negative MoM in August relative to July – a demand problem?
11:10 Export and import prices are decelerating for August in both MoM and YoY measures.
12:28 OUTRO: Inflation is an emotional issue; the US is the global price increase outlier.
———Ep 100.3 References———
First Transitory In Producers, Then More For Consumers, Now A Negative For Import Prices: https://bit.ly/2YZ0uP1
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wWlin
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7
Jeff Snider, Head of Global Investment Research for Alhambra Investments and Emil Kalinowski. Art by the complex pencil himself, David Parkins. Podcast intro/outro is “The Kill” by Particle House feat. Le June from Epidemic Sound.