Economy

Monthly Market Monitor – July 2020

By |2020-07-06T10:57:52-04:00July 6th, 2020|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Most Long-Term Trends Have Not Changed A lot has changed over the last 4 months since the COVID virus started to impact the global economy. Asia was infected first with China at ground zero. Their economy succumbed first with a large part of the country shut down to a degree that can only be accomplished in an authoritarian regime. The [...]

Reality Beckons: Even Bigger Payroll Gains, Much Less Fuss Over Them

By |2020-07-02T16:24:40-04:00July 2nd, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What a difference a month makes. The euphoria clearly fading even as the positive numbers grow bigger still. The era of gigantic pluses is only reaching its prime, which might seem a touch pessimistic given the context. In terms of employment and the labor market, reaction to the Current Employment Situation (CES) report seems to indicate widespread recognition of this [...]

Yield Cap History Is Rock Solid, Just Not At All In The Way They Are Telling You

By |2020-07-01T20:06:43-04:00July 1st, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

To hear the media talk, you’d think that the most pressing issue in the world right now is the dangerous prospect for rising interest rates. Rising. Its members are given this idea from the one source they rely upon no matter how many times that same source lets them down and leaves them in the lurch looking so very foolish [...]

What The PMIs Aren’t Really Saying, In China As Elsewhere

By |2020-06-30T16:55:03-04:00June 30th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

China’s PMI’s continue to impress despite the fact they continue to be wholly unimpressive. As with most economic numbers in today’s stock-focused obsessiveness, everything is judged solely by how much it “surprises.” Surprises who? Doesn’t matter; some faceless group of analysts and Economists whose short-term modeling has somehow become the very standard of performance.According to one such group, China’s official [...]

Looking Ahead Through Japan

By |2020-06-29T18:06:14-04:00June 29th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After the Diamond Princess cruise ship docked in Tokyo with tales seemingly spun from some sci-fi disaster movie, all eyes turned to Japan. Cruisers had boarded the vacation vessel in Yokohama on January 20 already knowing that there was something bad going on in China’s Wuhan. The big ship would head out anyway for a fourteen-day tour of Vietnam, Taiwan, [...]

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 15: The Mass Opiate of Our Time

By |2020-06-29T10:40:53-04:00June 29th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

AlhambraTube: https://bit.ly/3eGlSvF   Apple: https://apple.co/3czMcWN iHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cI Castro: https://bit.ly/30DMYza TuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2Z Google: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48M Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Castbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQ Stitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GB Overcast: https://bit.ly/2YyDsLa PocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdt PodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr     Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/   [Emil's Summary] The Communist Manifesto was in response to the 1820-30s. Marxism's worldwide appeal in the 1930s was a consequence of the 1920s. And now, in response to the 2010s, it's ascendant again. ----------WHY---------- Published in 1862, Les [...]

Swap Mean

By |2020-06-26T19:28:37-04:00June 26th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Little noticed at the time, October 2012 was quite the roller coaster. Most anyone cared about was QE3, the wonderful, awesome flood of liquidity kindly wise-man Chairman Bernanke had restarted for reasons that didn’t seem so important. Did it matter to the public that the repo market went haywire late in that very same month, at the very same time [...]

When Gigantic Positives Have Lost Their Appeal

By |2020-06-26T16:25:27-04:00June 26th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The payroll report for May was a shock because it came in as a plus when analysts, whomever they are, were expecting another huge minus. It seemed to set the tone for a realistic pathway being made out in the shape of the most perfect “V” ever written down. The mistake, such that there has been one, was interpreting the [...]

Wait A Minute, What’s This Inversion?

By |2020-06-25T19:25:35-04:00June 25th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Back in the middle of 2018, this kind of thing was at least straight forward and intuitive. If there was any confusion, it wasn’t related to the mechanics, rather most people just couldn’t handle the possibility this was real. Jay Powell said inflation, rate hikes, and accelerating growth. Absolutely hawkish across-the-board.And yet, all the way back in the middle of [...]

How Do You Say (Way) Off-balance Sheet In Chinese?

By |2020-06-24T19:38:33-04:00June 24th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Where central banks are concerned, it’s not conspiracy theory so much as the term “off-balance sheet.” There’s a reason Enron kicked off that mass-migration into the footnotes. For monetary officials, there’s the choice to be like Montagu Norman and what he thought of good practice at central banks. Silence.For years, the Chinese have tried it the other way. Big Mama [...]