Economy

Rate Hikes Are Working

By |2022-08-23T17:50:12-04:00August 23rd, 2022|Alhambra Research, Economy, Markets, Real Estate|

New home sales were reported for July as down nearly 13% to 511K, a number that is just about the average since 2010 (543k). But that doesn't tell the whole story obviously. New home sales have fallen sharply since December of last year, down 39%. The drop from the peak in August 2020 is even more dramatic, down nearly 51%. [...]

The Economy Improved In July

By |2022-08-22T09:11:34-04:00August 22nd, 2022|Alhambra Research, Economy|

The Chicago Fed National Activity Index rose to 0.27 in July with all four categories of indicators rising. The 3 month average was unchanged at -0.09. That indicates growth is slightly below trend and is far from the recession threshold of -0.7. The index had been down for two consecutive months and both May and June were revised slightly lower. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Regrets

By |2022-08-15T08:51:05-04:00August 15th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Over the last few months, as the outlook for the economy turned more sour, I've used these weekly commentaries to warn you not to get too negative. Long-term investors need to have a strategy they can stick with no matter what happens, a strategy that keeps them on an even keel. If you were so nervous that you sold out [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Tale of Two Economies

By |2022-08-08T07:17:43-04:00August 7th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

How odd is this economy? Two economic reports from last week, attempting to measure essentially the same thing, reported results that were so different they could be about two different countries. At 9:45 Wednesday morning, S&P Global reported their US Services PMI for July as 47.3 versus June's 52.7, a sudden and large one-month drop. When they reported the preliminary [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Opposite George

By |2022-08-01T07:52:19-04:00July 31st, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

It all became very clear to me sitting out there today, that every decision I've ever made, in my entire life, has been wrong. My life is the complete opposite of everything I want it to be. Every instinct I have, in every aspect of life, be it something to wear, something to eat... It's all been wrong. Every one. [...]

Weekly Market Commentary: Counterintuitive

By |2022-07-25T07:34:18-04:00July 24th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Where there is no hope it is incumbent on us to invent it. Albert Camus The economic data released last week was almost uniformly bad. We started the week with the NAHB Housing Index, a measure of builder sentiment, which fell from 67 to 55, much less than expected. Next up was more news on the housing market with starts [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: There Is No Certainty In Investing

By |2022-07-18T07:52:41-04:00July 17th, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Investors crave certainty. They want to know that there are definitive signals for them to follow as they adjust their investments to fit the current market and economy. They want to know that A leads to B leads to C. Tea leaf readers are always in high demand on Wall Street and they continue to find employment despite their almost [...]

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