Outside of the pandemic defined as 2020 and 2021, this past quarter was the 5th best quarter for nominal GDP in the last 25 years. It was the best real growth quarter since Q2 and Q3 of 2014. The last 12 months has been mostly about services, here are the biggest contributors to YoY GDP: Consumption of Services Consumption of [...]
Tis was a poor number. The headline dropped from -5.9 to -10.5. The more eye popping number was the Index for New Orders which dropped from 1.3 to -25.6. I hate to say it, the diffusion index for new orders has never gone below 21 without an accompanying recession; that is until 2023. This is the 4th reading in the [...]
Initial unemployment claims is up 2000 to 205,000. It remains at very low levels indicating continued employment strength. To put these levels in perspective, in the last cycle from 2009 to 2020 the first week of claims of 205,000 or lower came in 2018, nine years into the upcycle. Continuing claims dropped 1,000 and remains in a holding pattern after [...]
Existing home sales rose in November to an annual rate of 3,820,000 units from 3,790,000 in October. This is 7% lower than November 2022, but the negative growth in sales is improving. If the National Association of Realtor's expectations for 4,710,000 sales in 2024 is correct, this series will show positive growth which could be north of 20%. Inflation in [...]
Housing starts jumped by 201,000 in November. While the number beat expectations in an eye popping way, I don't expect to see a meaningful upswing. Construction activity is already historically high and seems to be constrained. There is plenty of backlog of houses waiting to be built. And, we seem to be working through those unfilled orders. Units under construction [...]
Industrial production has flat-lined over the past year. The YoY growth number is still negative but a bit better in Nov at -.4%. Dec 2022 was bad, so with a flat index for the next 2 months, YoY growth will be positive 1.1% for Dec23 and return to no growth in Jan24. We have been onshoring manufacturing. With flat industrial [...]
After a terrible ISM survey at the beginning of the month, GDPNow was indicating 1.2% growth. After a strong employment and retail sales report, GDPNow has more than double to 2.6%. Strong employment leading to strong consumption is the theme. Personal consumption is 68% of the economy and driving 78% of growth this quarter. Disclaimer: This information is presented for [...]
The Empire State Manufacturing Survey showed declining activity in December after a positive November. It is also still showing declining future orders. Services in NY region also showing declining activity but also some optimism for the beginning of 2024. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to sell, or the solicitation [...]
This was a really good number. It was partially a rebound from October. Non-store retailers were a big area of strength. I do think some holiday sales were pulled forward. Regardless, December is an easy comp, so next month's release should again be fine. Year over year sales grew 4.1%. Consumer strength continues. Disclaimer: This information is presented for informational [...]
Strong employment translating to consumption continues to be the biggest positive contributor to GDP in Q4. Initial claims continue to signal all good for the economy. 202,000 was the 4th best week of the year. The 4-week moving average is heading lower. Continuing claims reversed the positive print from last month. The trend higher is slowing. Disclaimer: This information is [...]
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