Markets

Three Short Run Factors Don’t Make A Long Run Difference

By |2020-03-24T19:28:45-04:00March 24th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

There are three things the markets have going for them right now, and none of them have anything to do with the Federal Reserve. More and more conditions resemble the early thirties in that respect, meaning no respect for monetary powers. This isn’t to say we are repeating the Great Depression, only that the paths available to the system to [...]

MAKING SENSE (podcast)

By |2020-03-25T13:22:22-04:00March 24th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Joining me for my inaugural podcast to try to make sense of this GFC2 (and more) is my colleague and fellow monetary enthusiast Emil Kalinowski. We talk repo, collateral, and why there are only dudzookas from the Fed.  It's also the start and tip of the ice berg for what we hope will become a much bigger project: an expansive, [...]

What If The Economy Wasn’t In A Good Place Entering Its Shutdown?

By |2020-03-24T16:06:09-04:00March 24th, 2020|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

Why didn’t they think about this first? All of a sudden, with markets in the toilet (especially stocks), everyone is itching to get the economy back up and running. The first real peeks at what’s happened to it (as we’ll see in a minute) have definitely contributed to what seems to be an about-face. Many are starting to ask if [...]

Collateral Shortage > Bond Vigilantism (and it’s not even close)

By |2020-03-23T19:22:36-04:00March 23rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Faced with severe economic distress and a global market meltdown, they promised that it would be big. Massive fiscal “stimulus”, however, might come at a price. In the short run it was necessary, according to the orthodox view. When a crisis shows up you don’t worry about how to pay for things. Once all is said and done, the current [...]

Right on Cue, Low Money Rates Are Not What You Might Think

By |2020-03-23T17:12:12-04:00March 23rd, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

For several weeks now, the Federal Reserve has launched one bazooka after another. Officials there keep reassuring the markets, and the public, they’ve got an unlimited toolkit. However, the fact that they feel it necessary to keep showing you is a warning sign, especially how quickly each one is forgotten and overshadowed by the latest Big New Thing. The reason [...]

Regime Change

By |2020-03-23T08:06:50-04:00March 23rd, 2020|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Special Reports, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks took another beating last week as the scope of the coronavirus shutdown started to sink in. The S&P 500 was down 15% last week with most of that coming on Monday after the Fed’s emergency rate cuts. Our accounts performed much better than that, but were still down on the week as corporate and municipal bonds continued to get [...]

The Solution Is To Stop Being Backward

By |2020-03-20T18:59:07-04:00March 20th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

I knew long before they came out that it was going to be a shitshow, pardon my French. You don’t screw up that badly and let the worst global monetary crisis in four generations happen on your watch with it having been any other way. So, when the FOMC transcripts for 2008 finally came out early in 2014, I knew [...]

Fire Jay Powell Immediately: The Overwhelming Proof For The Collateral Case

By |2020-03-20T15:46:15-04:00March 20th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The Federal Reserve conducts reverse repo operations (RRP) daily, and has for more than half a decade. These are very different from the “liquidity” operations the central bank has been deploying since last year’s rumble in the repo market; the latter merely mimic a repo transaction and are intended to push bank reserves the Fed creates on the spot out [...]

Stagnation Never Looked So Good: A Peak Ahead

By |2020-03-19T18:48:23-04:00March 19th, 2020|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Forward-looking data is starting to trickle in. Germany has been a main area of interest for us right from the beginning, and by beginning I mean Euro$ #4 rather than just COVID-19. What has happened to the German economy has ended up happening everywhere else, a true bellwether especially manufacturing and industry. The latest sentiment figures from ZEW as well [...]