I'm back! I took most of the month of December off, as I do every year, to do some thinking. Per the title of this essay, the purpose of these year-end musings is to gain some perspective. In the day-to-day, week-to-week, movements of the markets it is easy to forget that we are investing with a timeline measured in years, [...]
PPI Goods = -1.5% PPI Services = 2.1% PPI FD = .9% PPI translation to the consumer: PPI FD Personal Consumption = 1.04% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food and Energy = 2.2% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food, Energy and Trade Services = 2.9% PPI FD Personal Consumption less Food, Energy and Distributive Services = 3.4% We continue to [...]
Headline CPI came in at 3.12% in November, that's .11% lower than October. From September to October the headline dropped .46%. For the year, we've averaged a monthly drop of .29%. So the pace of disinflation is slowing. Additionally, YOY changes in prices are still higher than June, so we've made no progress in the 2nd half of the year. [...]
Note: This will be my last commentary this year. I plan to spend December thinking about next year and spending some much-needed time with family. Here's wishing you all a Happy Holiday season. Joe Calhoun Two years ago, I wrote a weekly commentary titled Who's The Sucker, in which I made the case that the S&P 500 was not a [...]
After considering all the data this week, the GDPNow estimate is 1.2% growth. This is down from the initial estimate of 2.3% on Oct 27th and down from 2.1% at the end of last week. The big dial mover was today's ISM report. Specifically the report had negative repercussions for goods consumption, business equipment investment and goods exports. Rates have [...]
We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]
Stocks, REITs, and bonds all rallied last week on the back of what was interpreted as good news on inflation. The CPI report was better than expected, the overall level flat from September to October. Core inflation, less food and energy, was also better than expected at up 0.2%. Producer prices, reported the day after CPI were even better, coming [...]
For the first time since March we are seeing a positive correlation between bond yields and reverse repos sold by the Fed. The change started during the last week of October and has continued throughout November. The correlation in March coincided with bank failures, mainly Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In between March and the end of October, the [...]
It's the residual of all the stuff we can't explain. It's not that our models are wrong, it's the dark matter that's out there. - Fed Governor Neel Kashkari, referring to the "term premium" in long term Treasury yields The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can [...]
So, is that it? Have rates peaked? Is the long bear market finally over? The market decided last week that interest rates have peaked for this cycle. And if rates have peaked then all the assets that have been pressured over the last two years can finally come up for air. Since October 18, 2021, over two years ago, investors [...]
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