Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the hazards of financial news, over-speculation in the market, the prudent person investment rule & reports on retail sales, industrial production, and the housing market index.
Weekly Market Pulse: Who’s the Sucker?
Look around the poker table. If you can't see the sucker, you're it. Warren Buffett I actually don't know if Warren Buffett was the first to say that and I'm not sure that's exactly the right phrasing. When I sat down to write this I thought it was from Amarillo Slim, a professional gambler from Arkansas. Or maybe that other [...]
Eurodollar University Episode 157, Part 3: Let’s Go Inside A Taper Where You’d Think It’s About Money (but you’d be very, very wrong)
157.3 Will the Next Fed Chair be a Theoretical Grammarist?———Ep 157.3 Summary———The last time the Federal Reserve tapered its QE program the central bank spent HOURS and HOURS and HOURS and HOURS on determining which adjective to us. Adverbs. Dangling participles, onomatopoeia, clauses, subject and object. What was NOT discussed? Money. Credit. Collateral. ———Sponsor——— Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski (a/k/a [...]
Eurodollar University Episode 157, Part 2: Is It Time To Start Thinking About (bond) Landmines?
157.2 The US Treasury Bond Market "Landmine" is Primed———Ep 157.2 Summary———The "landmine" has been part of each of the four global/regional dollar squeezes of the past 14 years (2007-09, 2011-12, 2014-16, 2018-20). The "landmine" is when US Treasury Bond yields decline precipitously and signal that economic potential has been seriously maimed. Where are we in 2021? ———Sponsor——— Macropiece Theater with [...]
Eurodollar University’s Episode 157, Part 1: Just Why CPI to the Sky
157.1 Consumer Prices Surge Worldwide in October - Why? ———Ep 157.1 Summary———Around the world data shows consumer prices are accelerating like we haven't seen in years, even decades. Why? Is it because politicians are wantonly giving away money? Are gluttonous central bankers printing cash? Is it a supply/demand imbalance? Is this the 1970s Great Inflation? ———Sponsor——— Macropiece Theater with Emil Kalinowski [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joseph Y. Calhoun discusses the Katona effect in light of last week's 10-year low consumer sentiment number and the 30-year high inflation number.
Weekly Market Pulse: Paging George Katona
Consumer sentiment hit a decade low last month, falling 6 points from an already low level. The culprit? Inflation, which we learned last week hit a 3 decade high in October. And if the founder of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is right, the next thing we'll see is an economic slowdown. George Katona was a psychologist who [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 3: China’s Central Bank Balance Sheet’s Dollar Flash
150.3 Warning Indicator Blinks Red on PBOC Balance Sheet ———Ep 150.3 Summary———What kind of foreign assets do you own PBOC? Well, we are adding a lot of "other" right now. "Other"? Yes, "other". What is that? Don't worry about it. What do you mean, 'Don't worry about it.'? Just know that we're adding it, whatever it is - it's good. ———Sponsor———Macropiece [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 2: Are All CPI’s The Same Thing? No and the Bond Market Tells You
150.2 History Lesson: Inflation vs. Bond Yields vs. CPI———Ep 150.1 Summary———We review the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 2000s and 2010s to study how bond yields reacted to persistent and pervasive monetary expansion, stagnation and contraction as well as how bond markets handled transitory consumer price shocks due to supply/demand imbalances. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 150, Part 1: How Bond Yields Astutely, Accurately Sort Out Past ‘Inflation’ Panics
150.1 Huge 1950s CPI-Surge was Transitory, Not Inflation ———Ep 150.1 Summary———An early-1950s US consumer buying-binge sent the Consumer Price Index soaring. Inflation!? No. It was a transitory supply/demand imbalance brought on by (geo)political factors. The bond market knew it and didn't overreact. And what about the Federal Reserve? They overreacted. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the latest [...]
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