Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about last week's rise in bond yields and what it means.
Weekly Market Pulse: Inflation Scare?
Bonds sold off again last week with the yield on the 10-year Treasury closing over 1.6% for the first time since early June. The yield is now down just 16 basis points from the high of 1.76% set on March 30. But this rise in rates is at least a little different than the fall that preceded it. When nominal [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 3: For Bonds, A Collateral Scarcity ‘Dashboard’
115.3 Seven Warning Signs to Watch in Debt Ceiling Drama ———Ep 115.3 Summary———Financial collateral is indispensable to the modern monetary system. Unfortunately the most pristine collateral, the US Treasury Bill, is in short supply because of the political debt ceiling drama. So, we identify seven warning indicators for acute collateral shortage. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading the [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 2: The Fall For Bond, Treasury Bond
115.2 US Treasury Bonds lose value each Autumn - Why?———Ep 115.2 Summary———Since 2011, the US Treasury 10-year bond peaks in value during the summer-to-autumn transition. Ignoring the economic context, whether positive or negative, bonds lose value. They lose value whether central banks are hawkish or dovish. Why? We offer five theories. ———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) reading [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 115, Part 1: The Autumn(s) Of (Bond) Discontent
115.1 Why do US Treasury Bonds lose value 'every' August !?———Ep 115.1 Summary———US Treasury Bonds have lost a lot of value since August, and especially in the last weeks of September. Is it a taper tantrum? Are foreigners selling lousy Uncle Sam paper? Is it Armageddon (again)? No, this happens—incredibly—'every' August. But why?———Sponsor———Macropiece Theater with Alistair Cooke (i.e. Emil Kalinowski) [...]
The Other Side of Sliding Commodities; Was There Ever ‘Too Many’ Goods?
Spend even a modest amount of time on the subject, and the distinct impression you are left with is that American ports and railyards are dealing with a truly epic jam because the economy has been so good there’s just too many goods for anyone to reasonably handle. Juiced by the federal government’s helicopters, Americans spent, spent some more, and [...]
Chip Shortages, Crude Boiling, Fed Explosion And…No Inflation
An integrated circuit (IC) is a set of electronic circuits put together on one small, flat semiconductor medium. We call this thing a chip, and it is essential for so much of what we do in the modern computerized, digital world. Manufacturers can’t even produce cars without them.It stands to reason, then, that any shortfall or hitch in the availability [...]
What’s The Real Downside To Some of These Key Commodities?
Last night, Autodata reported its first estimates for September auto sales in the US. According to its own as well as those compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (the same government outfit which keeps track of GDP), vehicle sales have been sliding overall ever since April. For a couple months in the middle of Uncle Sam’s helicopter-fed frenzy, the [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses zooming out on the market, and what the 10-year treasury is saying about future growth, inflation, the dollar, and oil.
Weekly Market Pulse: Zooming Out
How often do you check your brokerage account? There is a famous economics paper from 1997, written by some of the giants in behavioral finance (Thaler, Kahnemann, Tversky & Schwartz), that tested what is known as myopic loss aversion. What they found was that investors who check their performance less frequently are more willing to take risk and experience higher [...]
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