Monthly Macro Monitor – June 2020
The stock market has recovered most of its losses from the March COVID-19 induced sell-off and the enthusiasm with which stocks are being bought – and sold but mostly bought – could lead one to believe that the crisis is over, that the economy has completely or nearly completely recovered. Unfortunately, other markets do not support that notion nor does [...]
We Have Reached The Silly Phase of the Bull Market
Have we entered a new bull market? Was the 35% pullback in the S&P 500 in March the fastest bear market in history? Or is this just a continuation of the bull market that started in 2009, interrupted by a rather large correction? Bull markets and bear markets are about behavior, about the human emotions of fear and greed. While [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 12: Mailbag
iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Google: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Alhambra-tube: https://youtu.be/9xDka3RtxEk Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIP Twitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowski Art: https://davidparkins.com/ [Emil's Summary] Millennials may not know this, but many centuries ago mail came by bag not by vibration nor beep. Legendary figures took on the mantle of "Mail Carrier!" including: founding father Benjamin Franklin, Wells Fargo cowboys of the Pony Express, and nice guy Mr. McFeely from Mr. [...]
Beware of Accepted Wisdom
Most everyone has heard of the Chinese proverb – or curse – that wishes one to live in “interesting times”. You’ve probably also heard that in Chinese the word “crisis” is composed of two symbols, one that denotes “danger” and another that means “opportunity”. Well we certainly live in interesting times and there is indeed a crisis. We won’t know [...]
Market vs Economy: A Time Mismatch
“Intelligence is the ability to adapt to change.” Stephen Hawking The economic news over the last month has been as awful as anyone alive has ever seen. Unemployment has risen from 3.5% to 14.7% since February with nearly 15 million Americans filing for jobless benefits in the last month alone. The CFNAI hit its third-worst reading ever and that [...]
Weimar Thirties Didn’t Happen Because It’s What You Don’t See
It was an absolutely mad scramble. Banking difficulties in the Fed’s sixth district, the Atlanta branch, had sparked an irresistible wave of panic which spread throughout the Eastern seaboard. By December 1930, it had reached the streets of New York City – the world’s monetary capital. On December 11, customer withdrawals had left the Bank of the United States with [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 6: Shocking (to some) Fragility
iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google-cast: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Alhambra-tube: below SUMMARY Hubris. It will get us to the stars but seduce us into believing we belong there. Today, monetary authorities suffer it, believing they can manage the nonlinearity, emergence, spontaneous order, adaptation and feedback loops of the unraveling. DESCRIPTION In 1929 a plague struck Florida resulting in an overwhelming government response. [...]
Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 5: Myths
CHANNELS: iTunes: https://apple.co/3czMcWN Google Podcasts: https://shorturl.at/fpsEJ Spotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mY Emil-Tube: https://youtu.be/yqmVom5lq58 Alhambra-Tube: below SUMMARY: Ancient myths, like the Minotaur of Crete, Monkey King or Odin, are not taken seriously. But modern myths, like the Greenspan Put, the Bank of Japan buying stocks or bond kings selling Treasuries, not only are taken seriously, but acted upon. KEYWORDS: Eurodollar University, Jeff Snider, [...]
COT Black: No Love For Super-Secret Models
As I’ve said, it is a threefold failure of statistical models. The first being those which showed the economy was in good to great shape at the start of this thing. Widely used and even more widely cited, thanks to Jay Powell and his 2019 rate cuts plus “repo” operations the calculations suggested the system was robust.Because of this set [...]
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