Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun responds to pundits who say recession is inevitable. Plus discussion about changes to Alhambra portfolios.
Weekly Market Pulse: Inevitable?
Inevitable adjective incapable of being avoided or evaded I heard that word a lot last week. There is now a fully formed consensus that the US, and indeed the world, now faces an inevitable recession. It can't be avoided. Central banks will have to keep hiking rates because that's the only way to kill inflation. Yes, the inflation is due [...]
Are The 2s Already Rejecting Rate Hikes?
There was still another scramble for collateral yet again this morning. Nowhere near the intensity and duration of yesterday’s more massive flux, still it was obvious enough even if of the less egregious kind to only stick around for a little over an hour. Beginning at the European open (a place where recession signals are outright compounding), the 4-week bill [...]
Xi’s National Security ‘Stimulus’ Reaches The People’s Bank of China
Xi Jinping’s true aim, in my view, isn’t to severely limit the spread of the coronavirus, seeking its ultimate eradication, rather to curtail dissent particularly any views contrary to his handling of China’s increasingly desperate economy. Mao’s Xi’s purpose is to completely eliminate all opposition. This intentional security policy has now been extended to the People’s Bank of China itself. [...]
T-bills Targeted Target
Yesterday’s market “volatility” spilled (way) over into this morning’s trading. It ended up being a very striking example, perhaps the clearest and most alarming yet, of a scramble for collateral. The 4-week T-bill, well, the chart speaks for itself:During past scrambles, such as those last year, they didn’t look like this. They would hit, stick around for an hour, maybe [...]
Looking Back At Chaotic March Through TIC
March ended up being a pretty wild ride. Lost amidst the furor over Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the month began with a couple clear “collateral days. T-bill rates along with repo fails echoed that same shortfall before the yield curve then joined the eurodollar futures curve being inverted. It really hasn’t been the same since.Looking back on it using the [...]
Shipping Around Retail ‘Inflation’
This whole “inflation” scenario isn’t really that difficult to piece together, effect from cause. Sure, Jay Powell’s trying to nuke it by hiking the federal funds rate, but no one really uses fed funds and the problem isn’t the unsecured cost of borrowing bank reserves (not money) that are literally overflowing. For one, the FOMC’s efforts aren’t going to get [...]
Synchronized Not Coronavirus
There is an understandable tendency to just write off this weekend’s disastrous Chinese data as nothing more than pandemic politics. After all, it has been Emperor Xi’s harsh lockdowns spreading like wildfire across China rather than any disease (why it has been this way, that’s another Mao-tter). Open the cities back up, as many are doing right now, the world [...]
Weekly Market Pulse (VIDEO)
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses the craziness of the latest "Free Lunch" investment, plus last week's market and the effects of the dollar, credit spreads, and commodities.
Weekly Market Pulse: TANSTAAFL
TANSTAAFL is an acronym for "There ain't no such thing as a free lunch". It has been around a long time - Rudyard Kipling used it in an essay in 1891 - but it was popularized by Robert Heinlein's 1966 book, "The Moon is a Harsh Mistress". In economics, it most often refers to tradeoffs or opportunity costs; resources are [...]
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