Currencies

Hong Kong Stocks Pivot Euro$ #5

By |2022-05-25T20:31:20-04:00May 25th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The stock market hasn’t been moneyed; well, US equities, anyway. What do I mean by “moneyed?” Common perceptions (myth) link the Federal Reserve’s so-called money printing (bank reserves) with share prices. Everyone still thinks there’s a direct monetary injection in this case by the central monetary agency which causes stocks to rise for no good reason.While we don’t have to [...]

UST 2s & Euro$ Futures *Whites* Both Ask, Landmine At Last?

By |2022-05-24T19:56:19-04:00May 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The 2-year Treasury right now is the key point, the spot on the yield curve which is influenced mostly by potential alternative rates including those offered by the Federal Reserve. Because of this, the market for the 2s is looking forward at what those alternate rates are likely to be, then pricing yields accordingly. Since the FOMC sets those alternative [...]

Another Month Closer To Global Recession

By |2022-05-24T18:13:22-04:00May 24th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

We always have to keep in mind that the major economic accounts perform poorly during inflections. Europe in early 2018, for example, was supposed to have been just booming only to have run right into the brick wall that was Euro$ #4. Statistics like Real GDP picked up the downshift, but didn’t quite nail the degree to which the European [...]

RRP (use) Hits $2T, SOFR Like T-bills Below RRP (rate), What Is (really) Going On?

By |2022-05-23T20:31:15-04:00May 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

You might not know it, but front-end T-bill yields are not the only market spaces which are making a mockery of the Federal Reserve’s “floor.” There are others, including the same money number the same Fed demanded the world (or whatever banks in its jurisdiction it could threaten) ditch LIBOR over. Yes, SOFR.I’ve repeatedly highlighted the 4-week Treasury bill simply [...]

‘Unconscionably Excessive’ Denial

By |2022-05-23T17:34:06-04:00May 23rd, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

What would “unconscionably excessive” even look, legally speaking? More to the issue, who gets to decide what constitutes “excessive?” The way the phrase has been inserted, it’s as if Congress today seeks to plant its members on some incorporeal higher plane than mere physical substance, too, diving deep into the moral consciousness of the nation and economy in order justify [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Inevitable?

By |2022-05-22T11:51:23-04:00May 22nd, 2022|Alhambra Portfolios, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Inevitable adjective incapable of being avoided or evaded I heard that word a lot last week. There is now a fully formed consensus that the US, and indeed the world, now faces an inevitable recession. It can't be avoided. Central banks will have to keep hiking rates because that's the only way to kill inflation. Yes, the inflation is due [...]

Are The 2s Already Rejecting Rate Hikes?

By |2022-05-20T19:57:09-04:00May 20th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

There was still another scramble for collateral yet again this morning. Nowhere near the intensity and duration of yesterday’s more massive flux, still it was obvious enough even if of the less egregious kind to only stick around for a little over an hour. Beginning at the European open (a place where recession signals are outright compounding), the 4-week bill [...]

Xi’s National Security ‘Stimulus’ Reaches The People’s Bank of China

By |2022-05-20T17:37:15-04:00May 20th, 2022|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Xi Jinping’s true aim, in my view, isn’t to severely limit the spread of the coronavirus, seeking its ultimate eradication, rather to curtail dissent particularly any views contrary to his handling of China’s increasingly desperate economy. Mao’s Xi’s purpose is to completely eliminate all opposition. This intentional security policy has now been extended to the People’s Bank of China itself. [...]

T-bills Targeted Target

By |2022-05-19T20:00:57-04:00May 19th, 2022|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Yesterday’s market “volatility” spilled (way) over into this morning’s trading. It ended up being a very striking example, perhaps the clearest and most alarming yet, of a scramble for collateral. The 4-week T-bill, well, the chart speaks for itself:During past scrambles, such as those last year, they didn’t look like this. They would hit, stick around for an hour, maybe [...]

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