Currencies

Weekly Market Pulse: Wrong Again

By |2023-09-05T06:54:24-04:00September 4th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

There were some very smart people a year ago saying that you couldn't kill inflation without a big rise in unemployment. Last October, Larry Summers - former Treasury Secretary and President of Harvard - said we'd need a recession and an unemployment rate of 6% to kill inflation. In the summer of last year, he said we'd need 5 years [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: The Fault Is Not In R-Star

By |2023-08-28T07:54:21-04:00August 27th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Why, man, he doth bestride the narrow world Like a Colossus, and we petty men Walk under his huge legs and peep about To find ourselves dishonorable graves. Men at some time are masters of their fates. The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars, But in ourselves, that we are underlings. Julius Caesar, Act I, Scene II The [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The Correction Over?

By |2023-08-21T07:43:46-04:00August 21st, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

Stocks are now down from their late July peak by about 5%. It has been a very orderly pullback with most of the major averages shaving off about the same amount. The exceptions are the NASDAQ, which peaked a little earlier than the S&P, and REITs, both down about 7.5%. The NASDAQ is more volatile than the S&P so it [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: A Positive Feedback Loop?

By |2023-08-14T08:40:34-04:00August 14th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The 10 year Treasury yield has been in an uptrend since the summer of 2021 which is obvious to anyone who can see. It has stalled a couple of times and moved sideways - consolidated in Wall Street technical speak - but the trend is obvious (see below). It seems only a matter of time before we break above the [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Expect The Unexpected

By |2023-08-07T08:02:19-04:00August 7th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The stock market was down a little over 2% last week in what may be the start of a larger correction. Or not. Technically it is easy to make a case for a little more downside to the 50-day moving average, a total pullback of about 5%, and then a resumption of the uptrend. That's what happens in bull markets. [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Soft Landing?

By |2023-07-31T08:45:04-04:00July 31st, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

You've probably heard the phrase "soft landing" a lot lately. It has, over the last couple of months, become the new economic consensus. The economy continues to perform better than expected despite the Fed raising interest rates steadily - and fairly rapidly - over the last year. The most recent hike was just this past week and put the Fed [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Where’s That Correction?

By |2023-07-17T07:57:49-04:00July 17th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

A few weeks ago, it appeared to me that stocks were starting a correction. I was clearly wrong about that as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ have moved higher since then and the rally has broadened out. And thank goodness since the things I own are mostly the parts of the market that benefitted from the broadening. Stocks tend to [...]

I Have Questions

By |2023-07-17T07:43:30-04:00July 16th, 2023|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

I spend a lot of time asking questions. I don't always have answers to these questions but I think it is critical to ask them. Think about how the consensus might be wrong or, more importantly, how you might be. Question the narrative and try to determine what's important and what's not, who you can ignore, and who merits your [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Recession 2025?

By |2023-07-10T10:24:10-04:00July 10th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate|

Why aren't we in recession yet? That's a question that has been asked often over the last year but with no real satisfying answer. I have my own beliefs on the subject, rooted in the distortions of COVID. (You can read about it in my latest Follow The Money piece) I think my explanation is a pretty good one but even [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Growth Stocks Win The First Half

By |2023-07-03T07:18:54-04:00July 2nd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

The first half of the year is over and despite a few bank failures and three more rate hikes by the Fed, stocks and bonds both managed to produce gains in the first six months of 2023. Growth stocks were the big winners as the market for most of the first half was trying to price in rate cuts before [...]

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