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Markets

Weekly Market Pulse: Is The S&P 500 Still Uninvestable?

By |2023-12-03T20:16:58-05:00December 3rd, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Markets, Real Estate|

Note: This will be my last commentary this year. I plan to spend December thinking about next year and spending some much-needed time with family. Here's wishing you all a Happy Holiday season. Joe Calhoun Two years ago, I wrote a weekly commentary titled Who's The Sucker, in which I made the case that the S&P 500 was not a [...]

GDPNow — down on the week — as are bond yields

By |2023-12-01T15:42:31-05:00December 1st, 2023|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

After considering all the data this week, the GDPNow estimate is 1.2% growth. This is down from the initial estimate of 2.3% on Oct 27th and down from 2.1% at the end of last week. The big dial mover was today's ISM report. Specifically the report had negative repercussions for goods consumption, business equipment investment and goods exports. Rates have [...]

Macro: Incomes and Consumption Expenditures — a good report — be careful what you wish for

By |2023-12-01T09:23:49-05:00November 30th, 2023|Markets|

This was a very positive report. The consumer is showing no signs of pulling back or needing to pull back in the near term, buoying GDP and GDP expectations. Interest rates float higher on the news. A quick comment on market dynamics and reactions to releases such as this one. First, everything is relative to expectations. And for a report [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Some Things To Be Thankful For

By |2023-11-26T21:56:26-05:00November 26th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

We have a lot to be thankful for here in the US of A. It is sometimes hard to remember that while being constantly bombarded by negative news, about the economy and the country more generally. I don't like to comment about politics - I have to watch my blood pressure these days - so I'll stick to economics and [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Has Inflation Really Peaked?

By |2023-11-20T07:27:19-05:00November 19th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

Stocks, REITs, and bonds all rallied last week on the back of what was interpreted as good news on inflation. The CPI report was better than expected, the overall level flat from September to October. Core inflation, less food and energy, was also better than expected at up 0.2%. Producer prices, reported the day after CPI were even better, coming [...]

Macro: Markets — Banks exit overnight trade and extend duration

By |2023-11-18T09:03:02-05:00November 16th, 2023|Bonds, Commodities, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

For the first time since March we are seeing a positive correlation between bond yields and reverse repos sold by the Fed. The change started during the last week of October and has continued throughout November. The correlation in March coincided with bank failures, mainly Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. In between March and the end of October, the [...]

Weekly Market Pulse: Dark Matter

By |2023-11-13T09:29:55-05:00November 13th, 2023|Alhambra Portfolios, Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|

It's the residual of all the stuff we can't explain. It's not that our models are wrong, it's the dark matter that's out there. - Fed Governor Neel Kashkari, referring to the "term premium" in long term Treasury yields The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can [...]

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