The incoming economic data hasn't changed its tone all that much in the last several years. The US economy is growing but more slowly than it once did and we hope it does again. It is frustrating for economic bulls and bears, never fully satisfying either. Probably more important is the frustration of the average American, a dissatisfaction with the [...]
Back in 2014, the Federal Reserve was convinced that the labor market was better than it appeared to be in various data accounts. Though it was called the “best jobs market in decades”, researchers at the central bank were keen on showing it. Primarily lacking in wages and incomes, the labor segment was suspected of missing the very elements of [...]
Five days ago, the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published its Quarterly Review letter. Contained within it were the usual articles and releases of data that accompany every issue. There was the opening piece encouraged, as always, by the “strong outlook” though puzzled how it isn’t translating into inflation. And bowing to the enthusiasm and interest in things like Bitcoins, [...]
There is no change to the risk budget this month. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds is unchanged at 50/50. There are no changes to the portfolios this month. The post Fed meeting market reaction was a bit surprising in its intensity. The actions of the Fed were, to my mind anyway, pretty much [...]
The Federal Reserve updated the Financial Accounts of the United States (Z1) yesterday, meaning there is quite a lot of new data for the second quarter of 2017. It also means more than just that update, as each quarterly addition is often accompanied by revisions to past estimates. There were some substantial downward revisions to things like Corporate Net Worth, [...]
There wasn’t a whole lot that made sense about iron ore’s price surge through August. In the flipside of what is believed also to be moving copper, Chinese authorities have made it plain that they will take pollution control seriously this winter. For copper, that likely means shutting down mine production, tightening supplies, and could therefore be price positive, perhaps [...]
If it wasn’t perfectly clear before, and it really was, there is no way it isn’t now. The Fed is not in any way data dependent. The data on the economy remains in some category of insufficient, longer-term stuck much too far in the direction of atrocious. Yet, the central bank will exit anyway because there is nothing left for [...]
The National Association of Realtor (NAR) reports today that sales of existing homes in the US were down 1.7% in August 2017 from July. At a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 5.35 million, that’s the lowest pace for resales since July 2016. It is yet another data point reflecting the almost certain end of “reflation” in the economic sense. The NAR [...]
The framing is a bit clumsy, but the latest data in favor of the artificial CNY surge comes to us from Bloomberg. The mainstream views currency flows as, well, flows of currency. That’s what makes their description so maladroit, and it can often lead to serious confusion. A little translation into the wholesale eurodollar reality, however, clears it up nicely. [...]
Anyone available to travel to the Caymans in October should consider adding this conference to their itinerary. The topic this year is money and its future. I am confirmed to participate, though the rest of the roster of featured speakers makes it far more worth your time. There promises to be some really good, really important discussions and presentations. It [...]
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