The superficial transcendence of stocks notwithstanding, there continues a deeper and more devious trend in financial markets. As noted earlier today, while stock rationalizations were stoked by the inconsistent logic of “lower for longer”, other markets, the “dollar” in particular, are being thoroughly infected by great doubt. In some open episodes, that doubt has turned to fear, but the permeation [...]
Friday’s payroll malfunction makes a perfect backdrop for the latest Marxism revival. It has been a constant feature of this “recovery”, perfectly reflecting the labor realities of this “cycle” where financialism would be savaged from either end of the traditional political scale. As the tea party reflected the more libertarian, capitalist tradition against concentrations in banking and central planning, Occupy [...]
Asset markets on Friday reversed course after fully digesting a payroll report that has been universally assailed. The thinking is, apparently, that the Fed will have no choice but to stay on the sidelines now. That view is certainly bolstered by the FOMC’s inaction already in September, so worsening economic fortunes in the US apparently removes any flexibility anytime soon. [...]
This past week, the S&P 500 Cap-Weighted Index ((IVV)) tested and then held support at the 1867 level (at least temporarily) after its crushing meltdown from the 2130 level. If the index manages to hold here, we may test resistance at the 50-week moving average, which was once strong support. If it doesn’t hold the lows, we are looking at [...]
An interesting side benefit of the Fed having pegged interest rates effectively to zero and having accomplished so little with QE, is that we get to see markets' self-correcting tendency. Consider what has happened over the last year or so since the Fed made it clear their goal was to start normalizing policy, i.e. raise interest rates. As I've pointed [...]
The following table presents the probability of 4 possible paths for the economy and our macro research partners expected return for major asset classes in each scenario. The weighted average of all scenarios is presented in the last column. Click here to sign up for our free weekly e-newsletter. For information on Alhambra Investment Partners' money management services and [...]
Top News Headlines Russia, Iran surge into Syria; Obama blusters Obama signs stop gap funding bill; vows to veto any more short term extensions over debt limit. Hurricane Joaquin tracks up US east coast; Trump vows to deport if makes landfall. Education Secretary Aren Duncan steps down having accomplished nothing. Economic News Employment gains fading, unemployment rate steady, no wage [...]
You get the same sense from factory orders that you get from payrolls – the economy is obviously and significantly slowing but there isn’t yet any crispness or urgency to any of it. I think that is the business environment reacting to both revenue reality (falling off) without being ready to commit to more serious negative adjustments just yet. In [...]
The doubts about the payroll report were taken as no doubts at all in “dollar” trading. The three indications I gave yesterday in terms of representing liquidity were all pushed farther after the jobs data essentially confirmed the direction where this is all likely heading. While the yen may have been more muted, and the “shock” wearing off in later [...]
Even before the payroll report was issued, there was already an effort underway to downplay any negative potential. Global markets have been upset and in turmoil, but the US consumer and the consumer economy are supposedly undeterred by all that. So any weakness in September, as August, is being suggested as “residual seasonality.” This view was amplified by a Bloomberg [...]
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