Sentiment about the economy is negative right now, but that isn't a new development. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is near its all-time worst reading, which was set just a few years ago in 2022. The expectations portion of that survey is currently at levels only seen in the mid-70s, near the bottom of the '73/74 bear market, [...]
There's a lot going on right now and I've got way more questions than answers. Here's a few that seem important: Is this stock market correction the beginning of a bear market? Obviously, no one knows but Friday's close did mark a milestone. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite both closed below their respective 200-day moving averages. The 200-day MA [...]
How can the US re-open the Strait of Hormuz? That is the $64,000 question for investors today and the Trump administration so far doesn't have an answer beyond asking other countries for help (which they probably should have done before they started this). While Asian and European countries certainly have an incentive to get the strait open and oil flowing [...]
"Those that fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it." - Winston Churchill in a speech to the House of Commons in 1948 "History doesn't repeat itself but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain I saw quite a bit of commentary last week about the similarities between the events of today and the early 1970s, specifically [...]
The Wall Street Journal published an article last week about the concentration of the S&P 500 and why you shouldn't worry about it. The gist of the article is that the index has been more concentrated in the past and calamity didn't ensue so it must be okay now. The author, Jason Zweig, is one of my favorite financial writers [...]
While it seems obvious that the future should feature a lower dollar and gold continuing to outperform stocks, that is far from assured. That is the consensus view and while the crowd can be right for a long time, its clairvoyance is inversely proportional to its size. The more consensus the consensus becomes, the less likely it is to happen. [...]
We are all interested in the future, for that is where you and I are going to spend the rest of our lives. Plan 9 From Outer Space I have no idea what will happen this year. Neither does anyone else. If this is your first time reading one of my commentaries, you should probably know that I say that [...]
As is my custom, I'll be taking a break from these weekly updates for the rest of the year. That doesn't mean I'll be loafing my way to year end though. I'll probably do some short posts as things come up before year end but my main focus will be on the 2026 outlook that we'll publish in a couple [...]
Stay In Touch