Market & Economic Analysis

"Study the past if you would devine the future." - Confucius

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 63; Part 2: Bills Disappeared From Public Mind But Not (Repo) Markets

63.2 Growing Economy? Treasury Bills Don't Believe It!———Part 2 Summary———Economic recovery? Then why aren't US Treasury Securities being OBLITERATED by the combined power of vaccines, fiscal stimulus and monetary easing? Maybe because stimulus is really 'stimulus' and easing is 'easing'. Indeed, US Treasury Bills are being bid and signaling angst. ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 63.2 [...]

By |2021-04-13T16:49:35-04:00April 13th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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Consumer Price(s) Incalcitrant

While we consider the PPI’s view of inflationary pressures as overstated by simple arithmetic and the math of commodities, there’s no denying that producer prices have risen by a substantial amount. The question, the whole issue, is why. If it is truly because price pressures are building and have grown close to breaking out in systemic fashion, then that would [...]

By |2021-04-13T16:44:45-04:00April 13th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 63; Part 1: Bernanke Was Not Making Sense, Bonds, Bubbles & Money

63.1 Bernanke's Idea Doesn't Make Any Sense———Part 1 Summary———In the early 2000s, bond markets ignored the Fed. Alan Greenspan called it a "conundrum". Ben Bernanke blamed a "Global Savings Glut". But recent Federal Reserve research notes events since 2008 upend the Bernanke glut and instead suggest economic weakness and financial fear as causal. ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———Hear It——— [...]

By |2021-04-13T16:50:26-04:00April 12th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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New IRS Rule Helps Protect Your Tax Refund from Scammers

Identity theft is one of the major plagues of modern society costing its victims billions of dollars and untold man-hours to recover from it. In 2020, 1.4 million Americans were successfully attacked, which translates into a victim every 3 seconds.  That’s more than double the number from the year before. Sophisticated scammers are breaching the walls of major corporations and [...]

By |2021-04-12T09:03:23-04:00April 12th, 2021|Markets|
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Weekly Market Pulse: Nothing To See Here. No, Really. Nothing.

The answer to the question, "What should I do to my portfolio today (this week, this month)? is almost always nothing. Humans, and especially portfolio managers, have a hard time believing that doing nothing is the right response....to anything...or nothing. We are programmed to believe that success comes from doing things, not not doing things. And so, often we look [...]

By |2021-04-12T07:58:44-04:00April 12th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks|
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Scorching, Blistering, Highest In A Decade! Powell’s The Voice of Reason Here?

If there is one thing Economists understand very well, it’s mathematics. This is practically all they do, and all that means much to their discipline. If there’s one thing Economists don’t seem either competent with or interested in, it’s the economy. The math is supposed to match the other’s reality, yet rarely does.There are times, however, when simple calculation is [...]

By |2021-04-09T18:17:50-04:00April 9th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 62; Part 3: Downgrading ‘Stimulus’ Expectations

62.3 Why the Biden (and Trump!) Stimulus is OVERHYPED———Part 3 Summary———The 2007-09 crisis was a permanent shock. Neo-Keynesians do not believe such a thing is possible. But consumers? Not only do they believe in permanent shocks, they KNOW they are very real. Therefore, the Trump and Biden stimulus payments have NO CHANCE of fixing the economy. ———Episode 62 Intro——— “I [...]

By |2021-04-08T18:36:08-04:00April 8th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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Real Dollar ‘Privilege’ On Display (again)

Twenty-fifteen was an important yet completely misunderstood year. The Fed was going to have to become hawkish, according to its models, yet oil prices crashed and the dollar continued to rise. Both of those things were described as “transitory” by Janet Yellen, and that they were helpful or positive (rising dollar means cleanest dirty shirt!), but domestically American policymakers’ clear [...]

By |2021-04-07T20:04:14-04:00April 7th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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