Market & Economic Analysis

"Study the past if you would devine the future." - Confucius

Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 62; Part 1: Fed Starts to Figure Out How It Really Works, Or QE’s Achilles Heel

62.1 You Won’t Believe it: Fed Admits QE is Unhelpful———Part 1 Summary———Two Federal Reserve researchers claim the Fed, "can effectively reduce the [fragility] of the financial system by reducing the size of its balance sheet." REDUCING, not growing! To understand their conclusion we discuss: money dealers, interbank loans and collateral. ———Episode 62 Intro——— "I glanced at the list, running over [...]

By |2021-04-06T15:55:56-04:00April 6th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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Maybe The Biggest Challenge Is Not To Get Carried Away

Like a child fixated on a shiny new toy, I was enthralled by trading in WTI futures on Monday. There are times when end-of-day closing prices just don’t capture the full extent of what actually goes on during the several hours of any regular session, and yesterday was certainly one of those times. We’ve been on top of front-end contango [...]

By |2021-04-06T12:38:25-04:00April 6th, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Reopening 2

Last Friday’s March 2021 payroll report exceeded expectations in nearly every category. Analysts were hoping for something like the ADP’s private employment gains (+517k), somewhere in the ballpark of 550,000 to 600,000. Instead, the BLS thinks the whole economy had added between 803,700 and 1,028,300 (90% confidence). This translated into the “headline” of +916,000, of which +780,000 in the private [...]

By |2021-04-05T17:36:05-04:00April 5th, 2021|Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Weekly Market Pulse: Buy The Rumor, Sell The News

There's an old saying on Wall Street that one should "buy the rumor, sell the news", a pithy way to express the efficient market theorem. By the time an event arrives, whatever it may be, the market will have fully digested the news and incorporated it into current prices. And then the market will move on to anticipating the next [...]

By |2021-04-05T07:44:47-04:00April 4th, 2021|Alhambra Research, Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Markets, Real Estate, Stocks, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|
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Eurodollar University’s Making MORE Sense; Episode 61: What Did JAY Say?

61.0: LIVE! Reaction: Answering Jerome Powell———Intro———With no way to avert a US downturn, the Fed had to act forcefully to limit damage. So says Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Jeff Snider listens and reacts to Powell's case that the disruption wasn't the Fed's fault. ———SEE IT——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/izakaminskaTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———HEAR IT——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 60.0 Topics——— 00:05 Is a central bank's [...]

By |2021-04-01T16:47:33-04:00April 1st, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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Chock Full of Japanese

At the very least, you have to recognize the correlation. If you aren’t willing to consider causation, in part, there’s troubling coincidence in every place around the world between huge government deficits and less growth (therefore the constant inflation "puzzle"). You can argue that the former causes the latter, and that’s absolutely a valid case; when things get rough, neo-Keynesians [...]

By |2021-03-31T19:22:20-04:00March 31st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Yes, Curves Have Been Forced To Speak Japanese

Economists’ R*, or R-star, is a fiction. It’s one that they came up with after-the-fact to try to explain why their policies didn’t actually work the way policymakers had initially promised. While in public, officials still speak glowingly of each QE, one after another after another, in private they know it deserves absolutely no praise. Study after study has shown [...]

By |2021-03-31T18:32:23-04:00March 31st, 2021|Bonds, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 60; Part 3: The Cheques Didn’t Cash At Jay’s Dunkerque

60.3 Powell likens Fed’s COVID response to Dunkirk———Part 3 Summary———Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell analogized the central bank actions in March 2020 to the heroic evacuation of soldiers from Dunkirk in WW2. A more fitting analogy is the blunderous loss at Dunkirk that necessitated the rescue at all. ———Episode 60 Intro——— Jeff Snider is in his element in Episode 60, [...]

By |2021-03-31T12:05:42-04:00March 31st, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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Eurodollar University’s Making Sense; Episode 60; Part 2: Oil Twisting

60.2 Oil Market Issues Economic Warning———Part 2 Summary———The headline oil price has been falling since early-March, but insiders were alerted 10 days earlier of possible trouble by the futures curve. What is contango? What is backwardation? Do oil futures tell us the economy is struggling to gain additional liftoff? ———Episode 60 Intro——— Jeff Snider is in his element in Episode [...]

By |2021-03-30T20:29:50-04:00March 30th, 2021|Bonds, Commodities, Currencies, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|
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