Last week when I wrote this weekly piece, the S&P 500 futures were down 80 points as Russia appeared poised to attack Ukraine, which they ultimately did last week. Today I sit here to write again and the futures are once again down, this time around 100 points. What's interesting is that the level this evening is well above last [...]
As I write this, the S&P 500 futures are down over 80 points, apparently in response to some rather harsh comments from Vladimir Putin concerning Ukraine. Russia recognized the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk, two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine that border Russia, and is apparently deploying troops in these regions. This is seen by the west as a precursor [...]
There were some wild, unprecedented - frankly stunning - swings in some very large, high-profile stocks last week. The press concentrated on Meta, nee Facebook, and Amazon as the yin and yang, the negative and positive, of the market. Facebook (how long before Zuckerberg abandons Meta? I give it a year) managed to lose a quarter of a trillion dollars [...]
I'll just get this out of the way right at the beginning. The question in the title of this post refers to the end of the ongoing stock market correction and the answer is likely no. There are no sure things in this business so it isn't an unequivocal no, but based on history, the odds favor more weakness. I [...]
Fear tends to manifest itself much more quickly than greed, so volatile markets tend to be on the downside. In up markets, volatility tends to gradually decline. - Philip Roth Be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful. - Warren Buffett The new year hasn't gotten off to a great start for growth stocks or [...]
The economic news recently has been better than expected and in most cases just pretty darn good. That isn't true on a global basis, as Europe continues to experience a pretty sluggish recovery from COVID. And China is busy shooting itself in the foot as Xi pursues the re-Maoing of Chinese society, damn the economic costs. But here in the [...]
Consumer sentiment hit a decade low last month, falling 6 points from an already low level. The culprit? Inflation, which we learned last week hit a 3 decade high in October. And if the founder of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is right, the next thing we'll see is an economic slowdown. George Katona was a psychologist who [...]
What an intriguingly odd month September 2017 turned out to be. To start with, Reflation #3 only seemed to be gaining strength. The full throat behind Inflation Hysteria #1 was still ahead, as was its related personage the BOND ROUT!!!! And yet, early in that late summer month a sudden eruption; actually several. On September 5, T-bills. A day later [...]
Today is the 50th anniversary of the "Nixon shock", the day President Richard Nixon closed the gold window and ended the post-WWII Bretton Woods currency agreement. That agreement, largely a product of John Maynard Keynes, pegged the dollar to gold and most other currencies to the dollar. It wasn't a true gold standard as only other countries that were party [...]
This one wasn’t nearly so perfect as the scramble for collateral had been a few Tuesdays ago. Last night’s, however, did have a sizable, visible contribution from the gold marketplace. That’s a significant tell even if it didn’t necessarily correlate by the minute with T-bills and other collateral numbers.In this instance if only because the gold “slam”, which was enormous, [...]
Stay In Touch