The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. However, we are watching credit spreads very carefully because the BofA ML US High Yield Master II OAS is approaching 7.5%. That is a level that we think should trigger a [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. Credit spreads narrowed on the month but the widening trend is intact and has recently resumed. Valuations are still excessive and 3rd quarter earnings have been generally downbeat. A divergence is [...]
Top News Headlines Obama sticks a fork in Keystone after company withdraws request. Valeant troubles continue; CEO sells stock after margin call. Bill Ackman having a very bad month. DOJ ratchets up scrutiny of drug pricing. Seeking information from MRK, LLY and, of course, VRX. Berkshire Hathaway's profit more than doubles; other earnings news last week was pretty poor. Economic [...]
Top News Headlines Paul Ryan running for Speaker of the House. Old tech blows out earnings estimates; GOOGL, AMZN and MSFT lead the way. Huge hurricane heads for Mexico. Hillary testifies, Republicans look stupid.....again. Mets sweep the Cubs; my friend Jim sighs. Economic News ECB hints at more QE; stocks soar. China cuts interest rates and reserve requirements; stocks soar. [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. HY credit spreads continued to widen on the month indicating continuing stress in that market. Spreads did not widen sufficiently to generate an additional sell signal. Valuations are still near recent [...]
An interesting side benefit of the Fed having pegged interest rates effectively to zero and having accomplished so little with QE, is that we get to see markets' self-correcting tendency. Consider what has happened over the last year or so since the Fed made it clear their goal was to start normalizing policy, i.e. raise interest rates. As I've pointed [...]
The risk budget this month is unchanged. For the moderate risk investor, the allocation between risk assets and bonds remains at a defensive 40/60 versus the benchmark of 60/40. Credit spreads continued to widen over the last month but the rate of change is still orderly. The change this month was not sufficient to trigger an additional sell signal. Valuations [...]
Why was the stock market down almost 6% last week? I know what you're thinking - has this guy been under a rock somewhere? But I'm serious. I know what all the pundits, commentators and talking heads are saying about the immediate cause. It's about the China devaluation and the knock on effect in other emerging markets. It's about global [...]
Top News Headlines Stocks succumb to gravity. Industrials join transports in official correction, down over 10%. S&P down almost 8%. Emerging markets enter the bear's lair, down 25% from recent highs. Oil cracks the $40 barrier - to the downside. Tensions high on the Korean Peninsula. Americans foil terror attack on French train. Kazakhstan devalues the Tenge. Yes, that's a [...]
US stocks declined for the seventh straight day on Friday, a dismal streak not seen for almost four years. The S&P 500 is now down 5 of the last 7 weeks although in total it is just 2.5% below the all time high. If you just own the index I suppose that is not much to be concerned about but [...]
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