If there is a shift in the credit scheme of the junk bond bubble of late, the reduced volume in issuance would suggest why. While issuance, including high yield and leveraged loans, has been volatile the past few years it had never been so persistently beaten down as it is now. In other words, there had been “slow” periods in [...]
This belongs with the last post on the highly “disturbed dollar” but I felt it deserved its own separate piece to feature downstream of funding. Given the liquidity backdrop describing a broad range of extraordinarily disconcerting prices and liquidity rates, the selloff picking up pace in junk is anticipated. Even still, the nature of the crash and that it is [...]
There isn’t much as far as confirmation, but it increasingly appears as if “something” just hit the triple hooks (CCC) in the junk bond bubble. At least as far as one view of it, Bank of America ML’s CCC implied yield, there was a huge selloff that brought the yield to a new cycle high (low in price) above even [...]
On December 11, 2014, spot WTI closed at $60.01, down sharply from $76.52 the week before that Thanksgiving. In the space of only a few weeks, oil prices had collapsed far more than anyone thought possible; and yet there was very little urgency to the outcome. Economists, in particular, parroted throughout the media, were quick to assert both a supply [...]
If China is struggling with the various facets of the interconnected nature of eurodollar function, then we don’t have to go far to see that in almost perfect clarity. By many accounts, funding and liquidity remain highly disturbed and becoming more uniformly so. From gold to francs to copper to junk debt, pricing reflects more so a combined economic and [...]
Last week’s survey data around the world was a bit more mixed than anyone would have liked, an obvious statement that yet deserves the emphasis. Europe, for instance, remains mired in a fog of zombie-like “growth” that is notable for both a distinct absence of QE’s promised impact and the related Japan-like steadiness that suggests nothing good about near and [...]
While the stock market had one of its best months in years, it was, like the jobs report, uncorroborated by almost everything else. The junk bond bubble, in particular, stands in sharp and stark refutation of whatever stocks might be incorporating, especially if that might be based upon assumptions of Yellen’s re-found backbone. Do or do not, corporate junk remains [...]
You wouldn’t know it from stock trading or commodities, but when China reopened after its latest Golden Week holiday there was an obvious effect. Stocks have continued to surge while commodities overall have had a good week (copper up another $0.07 today, with WTI at about $50). Inside the money markets, however, China’s open was met with far less enthusiasm, [...]
It has certainly been much calmer in October so far, especially compared with the deep deviations following the FOMC’s lack of activity. Stocks have rallied since October 1 along with many commodities, especially crude. Currencies have been almost mellow, with the ruble following oil prices upward, the real departing (for now) from its devastation and even those like the Indian [...]
The doubts about the payroll report were taken as no doubts at all in “dollar” trading. The three indications I gave yesterday in terms of representing liquidity were all pushed farther after the jobs data essentially confirmed the direction where this is all likely heading. While the yen may have been more muted, and the “shock” wearing off in later [...]
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