72.0: Warren Buffett Knows Stocks but Not Money
———Ep 72.0 Summary———
Warren Buffett knows stocks but not money. From 2009-12 Warren Buffett warned that emergency monetary and fiscal action would make inflation surge. He warned that the US dollar was in the hands of a profligate Congress; that Treasuries would lose real value. He was wrong. On all counts.
———Ep 72.0 Topics———
01:06 Howard Buffett, Warren’s father, was an outspoken opponent of the New Deal fiscal deficits
02:54 Prior to 1933 the gold standard was an opportunity for people to act as ‘bond vigilantes’
05:04 In 2009 Buffett warned of fiscal irresponsibility; the dollar’s value in danger (nope).
09:11 In 2011 Buffett warned that the US dollar purchasing power would suffer losses (nope).
12:03 In 2011 Buffett warned that the potential for inflation was significant (nope).
12:16 In 2012 Buffett warned that the value of US Treasuries would suffer real losses (nope).
14:19 Are stocks a discounting mechanism that accurately reflect economic fundamentals? (nope).
17:04 Have US stocks, since 2008, performed better during non-QE periods than QE periods?
19:56 Academic studies explain that the three ways QE may affect the economy don’t affect it.
24:15 In 2021 Buffett warns that inflation is happening and that the US economy is red hot.
25:53 Is inflation a K-shaped phenomenon where the less-well off are bearing the brunt of it?
———Ep 72.0 References———
Is Warren Buffett Beautiful?: https://bit.ly/2Q13nuJ
Buffet’s “The Greenback Effect”: https://nyti.ms/3f2mey3
Crypto & Coffee with @NicholasBlack60: https://youtu.be/oaz-n6ayL1w
Alhambra Investments Blog: https://bit.ly/2VIC2wW
RealClear Markets Essays: https://bit.ly/38tL5a7