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Say’s Law and Stimulus Spending to End Recession: Why It was Doomed to Fail

By |2012-04-01T19:15:55-04:00April 1st, 2012|Economy, Markets|

Thinking Things Over          April 1, 2012 Volume II, Number 13:    Say’s Law and Stimulus Spending to End Recession: Why It was Doomed to Fail By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.       Canton, Ohio. So then you get the argument, well, this is not a stimulus bill, this is a spending bill! Well, what do you think a stimulus is? [...]

The New Normal Gets A Downgrade

By |2015-08-02T16:07:11-04:00August 2nd, 2015|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Taxes/Fiscal Policy|

It was back in 2009 that Bill Gross coined the term New Normal to describe the post-crisis US economy. That economy is marked by a reduced willingness to take risk in the private sector for a variety of reasons. No interest rate is low enough to induce corporate spending in an environment where aggregate demand [...]

The Dustbin Of Post-Panic History: QE Finally Joins The ‘Stimulus’ Bill

By |2014-07-09T15:52:49-04:00July 9th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The FOMC policy statement confirms without much doubt that there has been a major shift in conditions and outlook. To reiterate in what cannot be overstated, the purpose of implementing QE was to create economic conditions that conformed to the historical understanding of economic growth. If not so much 1995, Bernanke’s FOMC wanted to return [...]

Where Are These Employees?

By |2014-07-02T10:01:28-04:00July 2nd, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

While there are revisions to be made, and further revisions of those revisions, last month’s payroll report identified, unfortunately, what many economists are using for the “finish line” in this “recovery.” It is estimated in May that the US economy finally, ploddingly, regained the number of jobs it lost in the Great Recession. It took [...]

Forget All The ‘Noise’, This Is Why the Economy Has Been Sinking

By |2014-06-26T16:55:46-04:00June 26th, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The balance to all the policy of “good feelings” is the actual ability to spend. Orthodox economics resides on the demand side, which explains much of these persistent problems, yet there is a low degree of realization about getting from A to B. As I said earlier, modern central banks are about manipulating expectations, really [...]

‘Best Way’ To Create Systemic Poverty

By |2014-05-13T16:34:00-04:00May 13th, 2014|Bonds, Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets, Stocks|

The primary argument in favor of “aggregate demand” policies, or at least attempts at demand-side “stimulus”, amounts to putting more money into the economy as spending. You hear it all the time, as in give money to people that do not have it now and they will spend it, thus creating a “pump priming” that [...]

Consume Thyself

By |2014-05-01T10:56:39-04:00May 1st, 2014|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

The term consumer exhaustion can apply to several circumstances, but typically they all relate to exhaustion of resources. Households can appeal to wages, transfers, savings or debt, and usually some combination of the four, to maintain living standards and discretionary budgets. So exhaustion, like that of yesterday’s GDP, could be due to any one segment [...]

Alhambra Research Note: The Impact of Fiscal Policy on the Stock Market and the Economy

By |2012-05-28T17:29:24-04:00May 28th, 2012|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.      Washington, D.C.       May 28, 2012 The current debate in Washington over fiscal policy parallels that of the Presidential campaign: how do taxes and government spending affect the economy?  Does more spending “grow” the economy, as modern-day Keynesians suggest?  Can progressive tax increases benignly cut any government deficit?  Both theory and [...]

Alhambra Research Note: April Jobs Report and Investor Consequences

By |2012-05-06T06:27:34-04:00May 6th, 2012|Economy, Markets|

By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.    Canton, Ohio.        May 5, 2012 The U.S. economy added 115,000 non-farm payroll jobs in April, and the unemployment rate fell to 8.1%.  We analyze what this means ahead of important weekend elections in Europe. The Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics released its April jobs report Friday morning.  Here are [...]

Monetary Policy, the Real Economy, and Asset Prices: Where are We?

By |2012-04-22T23:30:20-04:00April 22nd, 2012|Economy, Federal Reserve/Monetary Policy, Markets|

Thinking Things Over    April 22, 2012 Volume II, Number 16:  Monetary Policy, the Real Economy, and Asset Prices: Where are We?  By John L. Chapman, Ph.D.      Canton, Ohio. In the wake of recent market volatility, and ahead of the Federal Reserve's Open Market Committee meeting here on April 24-25, calls for another round of Fed easing, "QE3," have again [...]

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