All my economists say 'on one hand' then 'but on the other'. Can't someone bring me a one-handed economist? Maybe Harry Truman but on the other hand maybe Charles Frederick Carter or on the other hand maybe it was a one-armed economist Jerome Powell's speech at Jackson Hole last Friday was widely perceived as a capitulation, an admission that rate [...]
“I think we could go into a series of rate cuts here, starting with a 50 basis-point rate cut in September". "If you look at any model" it suggests that “we should probably be 150, 175 basis points lower.” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a Bloomberg interview, 8/13/25 President Trump and others in his administration have been pushing for lower [...]
Last week President Trump nominated the head of his Council of Economic Advisors, Stephen Miran, to fill a vacant seat on the board of the Federal Reserve. Miran will fill the seat recently vacated by Adriana Kugler but supposedly only to complete her term, which ends on January 31st, 2026. I say supposedly because I suspect that he'll be there [...]
When the June employment figures were released last month, I said there was likely a seasonal adjustment problem with the numbers and that a large part of the government jobs supposedly created would likely be revised away. The employment report was reported as better-than-expected but the details weren’t as positive. Of the total of 147k new jobs reported, only 74k [...]
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