The US federal government is the brokest entity the dark side of humankind could have ever conceived. And while that’s certainly the case, it is simultaneously true that our out-of-control politicians have no trouble whatsoever selling this deepening debt to a deflationary marketplace only too willing to snap up whatever is offered as if it was somehow scarce. Count me [...]
The problem regulators have had with LIBOR has next to nothing to do with that whole scandal. Even the bankers who ended up going to jail did so based (largely) on misleading emails (just four, in one guy’s case). What constitutes a “representative” rate anyway? Your opinion might differ from mine or the other bank reps on the LIBOR panel, [...]
67.1 US Stimulus Fails: Bush, Obama, Trump (& Biden?!)———Part 1 Summary———Government stimulus seems to work sometimes (e.g. US recessions after WW2). Other times it clearly fails: 1970s USSR, 1980s S. America and Africa, 1990s Japan, and USA post-2008. Presidents Bush (ECA 2008), Obama (ARRA 2009) and Trump (TCJA 2017) tried and failed. Will Biden be any different? ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra [...]
On December 26, 2018, the US Treasury sold off $41 billion in 5-year notes. “Only” $85.8 billion in bids were submitted, weakening the widely watched bid-to-cover ratio to a chatty 2.09. The prior sale of 5s had yielded a bid-to-cover of 2.495, nearly $100 billion in bids for $40 billion on offer, so something was clearly up. Had it been [...]
Long bond futures, open interest. There really shouldn’t be much to glean from just the raw count of US Treasury futures contracts at any given time, yet throughout the past quarter-century you could tell something was up whenever this particular contract’s open interest went up. More of long bond OI, the more it seemed (and still seems) trouble lurked (lurks).I [...]
Since we’re still on the topic of Treasury auctions, here’s another one to take a closer look at. Yesterday, Treasury sold $18 billion in 5-year TIPS – the inflation protected security (91282CCA7) – and though there were plenty of bids they came in at prices somewhat out of whack with the secondary market. This left two-thirds of the offering to [...]
The Australians are doing quite well, at least according to more recent data. A few hiccups hear and there, the economy Down Under has been riding high(er) on the Chinese rebound and the potential end to the pandemic. Earlier today, National Australia Bank’s survey of the first quarter business environment was thoroughly positive. At an index value of +17, this [...]
66.0: LIVE! Reaction: Answering The St. Louis Fed ———Ep 66 Intro———In 2014 the St. Louis Federal Reserve noted that despite a MASSIVE increase in money the expected 4 to 6% inflation did not materialize. The researchers suggest it was a "liquidity trap". Yes, and no. But mostly no. ———SEE IT——— Twitter: https://twitter.com/izakaminskaTwitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil YouTube: https://bit.ly/310yisLArt: https://davidparkins.com/ ———HEAR IT——— Vurbl: https://bit.ly/3rq4dPnApple: https://apple.co/3czMcWNDeezer: https://bit.ly/3ndoVPEiHeart: https://ihr.fm/31jq7cITuneIn: http://tun.in/pjT2ZCastro: https://bit.ly/30DMYzaGoogle: https://bit.ly/3e2Z48MSpotify: https://spoti.fi/3arP8mYPandora: https://pdora.co/2GQL3QgBreaker: https://bit.ly/2CpHAFOCastbox: https://bit.ly/3fJR5xQPodbean: https://bit.ly/2QpaDghStitcher: https://bit.ly/2C1M1GBPlayerFM: https://bit.ly/3piLtjVPodchaser: https://bit.ly/3oFCrwNPocketCast: https://pca.st/encarkdtSoundCloud: https://bit.ly/3l0yFfKListenNotes: https://bit.ly/38xY7pbAmazonMusic: https://amzn.to/2UpEk2PPodcastAddict: https://bit.ly/2V39Xjr ———Ep 66.0 Topics——— 00:05 [...]
65.3 Did Death come for US Treasuries on February 25th?———Part 3 Summary———On February 23rd the US Treasury 2-year auction put in some record-low bids. But then, on February 24th, the snowflake (or feather, or spark... maybe all three at once) came, so that by the 25th perceptions had reversed (melo)dramatically. Had Death come for US Treasuries? ———See It———– Twitter: https://twitter.com/JeffSnider_AIPTwitter: https://twitter.com/EmilKalinowskiAlhambra YouTube: https://bit.ly/2Xp3royEmil [...]
The US Treasury Department announced today that it has completed an auction of 20-year bonds. Quite unlike the one 7s auction – you know, that one – this particular bond sale was positively uninteresting. Like all the rest of the bills, notes, and bonds since February 25, there an overwhelming number of bank dealers and other participants some of whom [...]
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