What’s that I hear? It’s very faint, but it sounds familiar. I cup my hand around my ear to hear better and, yes, I’ve heard it before. In the distance, there are shouts of “Abolish the IRS. We want a Fair Tax.” The idea of a Fair Tax was first introduced in 1999 by former Georgia Congressman John Linder. His [...]
As I sit here writing this Sunday afternoon, the US has just shot down a third UFO in the last 3 days in addition to the Chinese "weather" balloon last week. I have no insight into what these things might be but I do wonder if we haven't declared war on the National Weather Service. The federal government has become [...]
I've been writing for over a year about the economy rebalancing back to its pre-COVID trends. The massive fiscal expansion during COVID and the Fed's accommodation of that spending via QE is what caused the spike in prices over the last 18 months. Yes, there were supply issues too but the size of the demand shock overwhelmed the supply issues. [...]
Inflation* in the US is falling rapidly with the CPI rising just 0.9% in the second half of 2022 versus 5.4% in the first six months. Existing home sales are down 14.6% in the last 3 months and 34% over the last year. Housing starts are down 22% and permits are down 30% year-over-year. Orders for durable goods are down [...]
Pandemic Wealth Effect The top 1% of the US made about $14T or $4.2M per person. The next 19% made about $20T or $318,000 per person. The next 30% made about $5T or $50,000 per person. The bottom 50% made about $1T or $6,000 per person. The resulting inflation is at a 40yr high and Powell wants the money back. [...]
Markets were rather volatile last week. That's a wild understatement and what passes for sarcasm in the investment business. Stocks started the week waiting with bated (baited?) breath for the inflation reports of the week. It isn't surprising that the market is focused firmly on the rearview mirror for clues about the future since Jerome Powell has made it plain [...]
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun gives a refresher on nominal and real interest rates and what they're saying right now about the investor fear factor.
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun compares the similarities between today's bear market and past ones, plus last week's data on the economy, employment, and whether the new data points to recession.
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun discusses how last week's Federal Reserve meeting contained nothing new and actually confirmed what the markets have been saying about interest rates and recession.
Alhambra CEO Joe Calhoun talks about investor psychology toward current markets and how investor foibles never change. He also discusses the uptrend in the 10-Year Treasury and the Dollar.
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