Sentiment about the economy is negative right now, but that isn't a new development. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey is near its all-time worst reading, which was set just a few years ago in 2022. The expectations portion of that survey is currently at levels only seen in the mid-70s, near the bottom of the '73/74 bear market, [...]
How can the US re-open the Strait of Hormuz? That is the $64,000 question for investors today and the Trump administration so far doesn't have an answer beyond asking other countries for help (which they probably should have done before they started this). While Asian and European countries certainly have an incentive to get the strait open and oil flowing [...]
Predicting the future course of the markets - interest rates, stock prices, commodity prices - is impossible. That is true even in times when the future seems set, when it seems predictable, when there is consensus about the impact of all the factors that affect markets and ultimately economies. It is even more true during times of great uncertainty, times [...]
What's in a name? That which we call a rose, by any other name would smell as sweet. - Romeo and Juliet, Act II, Scene II The Supreme Court finally released its ruling on President Trump's use of the IEEPA (International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977) to impose universal tariffs on foreign goods and the verdict was utterly [...]
The latest government shutdown ended last week, after a mere four days, but that was apparently enough to prevent the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing the January employment report. It will be released this week instead (2/11) but I'd prefer if they waited about six months. These reports are one of the most anticipated by Wall Street and are [...]
While it seems obvious that the future should feature a lower dollar and gold continuing to outperform stocks, that is far from assured. That is the consensus view and while the crowd can be right for a long time, its clairvoyance is inversely proportional to its size. The more consensus the consensus becomes, the less likely it is to happen. [...]
As we near the end of the first year of President Trump's second presidential term, the debate about his economic policies hasn't changed much. That's because it isn't an economic debate mostly, but a political one and that applies to the public as well as economists (yes, they are as vulnerable to political bias as anyone else). Democrats hate Trump's [...]
As is my custom, I'll be taking a break from these weekly updates for the rest of the year. That doesn't mean I'll be loafing my way to year end though. I'll probably do some short posts as things come up before year end but my main focus will be on the 2026 outlook that we'll publish in a couple [...]
A few weeks ago I asked the question that everyone is asking today: Is This A Bubble? My answer, as it is for most questions about the future, is that I don't know. But there are some things I do know: The S&P 500 is priced for low future returns, quite possibly negative on a real basis over the next [...]
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