But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions... - Alan Greenspan, The Challenge of Central Banking in a Democratic Society, at the Annual Dinner and Francis Boyer Lecture of The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research, Washington, D.C., December 5, 1996 Are investors too optimistic? [...]
This week's update will be confined to the observations in the labeled sections below. My wife and I have been in NYC since the middle of last week to explore some previously unknown family relationships courtesy of 23andMe. It has been an exciting week for our previously small family. My wife is - was - an only child - adopted [...]
As we enter the final quarter of 2024, there are a lot of questions facing investors. There are, of course, always a lot of questions because investors are always dealing with the future, but today's environment does seems to have more than usual. Some of these questions concern short-term considerations and while they are important, it is more important to [...]
There has been a lot of talk over the last few months about the US economy slowing but there is scant evidence of it in the economic data. The latest lack of evidence came last Friday with the release of the September employment report which was quite a bit better than expected. The establishment survey showed the economy added 254k [...]
Well, they did it. The Fed cut the Fed Funds rate by 50 basis points last week and indicated that there is likely more to come. Stock investors liked it, bidding up small cap stocks (S&P 600) by 2.25%, large caps (S&P 500) by 1.4%, and the NASDAQ by 1.5%. Most other markets also did as expected with emerging market [...]
It's Fed week again, when the monetary mandarins gather to set interest rates and guide the economy according to the latest 3-year plan (central planning may not have worked for the communists but our people are smarter). This is a quarterly meeting when they'll sift through the tea leaves or gaze into their crystal balls or whatever they do to [...]
Have more than thou showest, Speak less than thou knowest, Lend less than thou owest, Ride more than thou goest, Learn more than thou trowest, Set less than thou throwest; Leave thy drink and thy whore, And keep in-a-door, And thou shalt have more Than two tens to a score. King Lear, Act 1, Scene 4 My grandmother was [...]
You're going to hear a lot of talk about the yield curve soon and what it means for "the" yield curve to uninvert (which isn't a real word but will get used a lot). The difference between the 10-year Treasury note yield and the 2-year Treasury note yield is about to turn positive, the 2-year note yield recently falling a [...]
Overall, the economy continues to grow at a solid pace. But the inflation and labor market data show an evolving situation. The upside risks to inflation have diminished. And the downside risks to employment have increased. As we highlighted in our last FOMC statement, we are attentive to the risks to both sides of our dual mandate. The time has [...]
Conventional wisdom: US growth stocks continue to dominate the US stock market. Growth stocks have outperformed value stocks for a long time and the last year of AI driven gains shows that isn't changing. US stocks have outperformed the rest of the world and that isn't going to change because we have the best companies. The dollar is strong and [...]
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