The latest government shutdown ended last week, after a mere four days, but that was apparently enough to prevent the Bureau of Labor Statistics from releasing the January employment report. It will be released this week instead (2/11) but I'd prefer if they waited about six months. These reports are one of the most anticipated by Wall Street and are [...]
While it seems obvious that the future should feature a lower dollar and gold continuing to outperform stocks, that is far from assured. That is the consensus view and while the crowd can be right for a long time, its clairvoyance is inversely proportional to its size. The more consensus the consensus becomes, the less likely it is to happen. [...]
This is, in my opinion, the most interesting chart in all of finance. This shows the return from gold versus the total return of the S&P 500 since 1/1/2000. As you can see, gold's return has exceeded that of stocks by almost 3 to 1; it isn't even close. If you had bought gold at the turn of the century, [...]
As we near the end of the first year of President Trump's second presidential term, the debate about his economic policies hasn't changed much. That's because it isn't an economic debate mostly, but a political one and that applies to the public as well as economists (yes, they are as vulnerable to political bias as anyone else). Democrats hate Trump's [...]
As is my custom, I'll be taking a break from these weekly updates for the rest of the year. That doesn't mean I'll be loafing my way to year end though. I'll probably do some short posts as things come up before year end but my main focus will be on the 2026 outlook that we'll publish in a couple [...]
A few weeks ago I asked the question that everyone is asking today: Is This A Bubble? My answer, as it is for most questions about the future, is that I don't know. But there are some things I do know: The S&P 500 is priced for low future returns, quite possibly negative on a real basis over the next [...]
Our view of the economy is somewhat obscured by the lack of official data but what information we do have from the last month points to an economy that continues to weaken - continuing a trend that has prevailed all year. The most obvious negative pronouncement about the economy came from voters last week, who produced some big surprises in [...]
Are US markets, once again, in a bubble? Are AI stocks overvalued or are they discounting a new age of prosperity driven by big gains in productivity? What about gold? It's up over 50% this year, signaling...what exactly? Gold is a fear asset that usually shines when the economy is bad and stocks aren't doing so well. So, why is [...]
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