Chart(s) of the Week: You Were Saying Rate Cut?
We’ve got repo, erratic federal funds market, German 2s correlated with it, plunging bond yields, angry swaps (IR and FX), and economic data increasingly and more speedily in the wrong direction. Overseas official entities piled [...]
Real Liquidity Cuts Across Many Boundaries; So Does The Lack of It
Things that happen in one place happen in every place. That’s been the second hardest thing to get people to realize. The first is that central banks are not central. And the reason they aren’t [...]
Payroll Friday: This Is Bad, Folks
You never fixate on a single employment report. It is a lesson that Jay Powell may not have yet learned. Either that, or he was desperately grasping for straws. The Federal Reserve is trying to [...]
A Day Later, No Takers Anywhere
I see it as reality intruding. The myth of the Fed continues to linger in the popular media, the mainstream press will dutiful parrot the idea that rate cuts and an end to QT are [...]
Sure, One and Done
The FOMC yesterday reiterated their stance that the economy was strong. But they also hedged. A one-and-done rate cut is one thing, some insurance (allegedly) for keeping the good times rolling. What about QT, though? [...]
Maybe The Grand Celebration For The Early End of QT Starts Tomorrow?
Perhaps too much attention was given to “one-and-done”, the knee-jerk disappointment over what everybody is saying was not enough “dovishness.” And while that may have been true as it relates to main star of the [...]
There’s Dollar In The Rate Cut, But Not Nearly Enough Dollar
The insurance rate cut has been issued. Telling the assembled members of the press this is nothing more than a “mid-cycle adjustment”, Chairman Powell was cautious not to betray too much concern. The first rule [...]
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