Where Doves Are Dreaded
If “rate hikes” and QT are the world’s big problem in 2019, then why is the FOMC announcing the end of “rate hikes” and QT failing to have a positive effect? The answer will surprise [...]
Barbarians Revisited
Color them confused. They just can’t figure out why the world is going the wrong way, and in so many places. An upheaval here or political modification there, that’s the world as it always has [...]
Slump, Downturn, Recession; All Add Up To Sideways
According to Germany’s Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung, or ZEW, the slump in the country’s economy has now reached its fourteenth month. The institute’s sentiment index has improved in the last two, but only slightly. As [...]
Negative TIC Is A Rare Level of Negative
Even on a six-month cumulative basis, it is rare to find a negative number. These are reserved for the big ones, the market-shaking events that either perform an inflection or confirm one as it reaches [...]
Suddenly Stuck on Sideways: Banks, Not Babies Nor Bubbles
What is Japanification? There are all sorts of ways to explain what the term can mean. The simplest is a single word, which for me is “sideways.” We live in a non-linear world meaning one [...]
Chart(s) of the Week: Reviewing Curve Warnings
Quick review: stocks hit a bit of a rough patch right during the height of inflation hysteria. At the end of January 2018, just as the US unemployment rate had finally achieved the very center [...]
The World Economy’s Industrial Downswing
As economic data for 2019 comes in, the numbers continue to suggest more slowing especially in the goods economy. Perhaps what happened during that October-December window was a soft patch. Even if that was the [...]
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