Fed’s Own Models Contradict Their Rhetoric
The June FOMC meeting coincides with the quarterly update of the Federal Reserve’s modeled economic and policy projections. As usual, the economy forecasts have been cut for both 2016 and 2017. The upper bound for [...]
NOTE on Prior Post
Earlier I posted an article detailing the BEA's benchmark update for State & Regional level real GDP. After further research, I cannot verify the exact comparability between the two data series (vs. NIPA) leaving too many [...]
Uncomfortably Familiar
This is all starting to look very familiar and predictably so: Especially this: It is utterly extraordinary that the June 2023 eurodollar futures contract closed trading at 98.00, much less than on February 11 and a [...]
The First Day of Real Progress Is Very Likely A Long Way Off
So the FOMC voted against another rate hike yesterday, which in itself deserves no comment. Not even Esther George could muster a dissent as she has done nine of the previous eleven times. Notably the [...]
Again We Find US Monetary Policy Written In Chinese, Cast In Hong Kong, Tokyo, and London
The Treasury International Capital (TIC) update for April showed a very large net decline in foreign (registered) holdings of US securities. The total net drop was $68.7 billion, the largest in one month since the [...]
China Financing As Expected
Last week, the National Bureau of Statistics in China released what seemed like import levels that suggested “stimulus” was finally paying off and the economy had struck bottom. Among these more glowing results was an [...]
Industrial Production Slumps Still; Auto Production In Particular
Industrial production fell year-over-year in May 2016 for the ninth consecutive month. At -1.4%, it is the same kind of slow, steady contraction now that we find in so many other places. This is not [...]
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