The S&P 500 made a new high last week, finally closing over the 1900 level. European stocks were also higher on the week and have continued the rally today even after election results over the weekend showed an uncomfortable gain for some parties that are, well, let's just say that some of their ideas are not exactly in keeping with [...]
Normally the lack of volatility in "markets" would be a welcome event. Stability is something to be courted not disbarred and exiled. Sure, the big banks will make noise about how they can't "make money" in such an environment (as they are right now about credit markets) but that will only force them to find something more productive to do [...]
Apparently the stasis that has infected credit markets has been visited upon gold prices. Going back to late March, gold has straddled the $1,300 level without straying too far on either side. As with other credit market prices, such stability is conspicuously different from what would be considered “normal” market behavior. Is it possible the two opposing forces affecting gold [...]
A recently issued report from the World Gold Council surmised that it was “feasible” for as much as 1,000 tons of physical gold to have become entangled with financing deals in China last year. That would/might account for some portion of the physical metal that has moved East in recent years, as metal inventory has long been a popular staple [...]
The latest money growth figures from China seemed to have brought back worries over more disorder in finance. Tomorrow the Chinese government will release GDP figures for the first quarter and current expectations (I know) are for 7.3% Y/Y growth. That would be the slowest rate of expansion in memory. The two are inextricably linked as slowing growth, including the [...]
The US Dollar index exhibits the classic characteristics of a downtrending asset: Declining 50 and 200 day moving averages with the 50 solidly below the 200. Momentum indicators (MACD, PMO) both on sell signals. A longer term view shows the index on the edge of support: A break of the 78-79 support level would open the way to a return [...]
There are certain compounds that just do not go together without creating volatile reactions. These binary substances, when mixed, are exceedingly dangerous under even stable conditions. It seems as if there is a lot to be said of the latest near miss in Chinese bond defaults. Again, we are dealing with a relatively tiny business that should, on its own, [...]
Recently there has been a slight increase in interest over the money supply figures, particularly M1; nothing too major but some perceptible chatter. Going back in the weekly data, you find that the growth rate suddenly jumps in early February. For anyone searching for inflation, which includes practically the whole of the orthodoxy, this might seem like a sign of [...]
Gold has seen a healthy run since the first incidence of QE taper, again conforming to the idea that gold is tail risk insurance unrelated to inflation perceptions. That included a January rebuke to the collateral pressure/selloff pattern that we saw too much of in 2013. In the past few days, gold prices have come down a bit and that [...]
So far in China this year there have been defaults and “bailouts” in the credit markets, but they are tiny in relative comparison to everything else. That they have occurred at all is why they have grabbed so much attention. We all have some inkling of the credit and monetary inequities that are roiling inside the Chinese economic gut, but [...]
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